Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 5.1 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4 and had to travel 564 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel564 kmRest days5.1 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real Sociedad53%
Draw23%
Celta Vigo24%
Real Sociedad44%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo30%
Real Sociedad53%
Draw23%
Celta Vigo24%
Real Sociedad45%
Draw24%
Celta Vigo30%
Real Sociedad53%
Draw23%
Celta Vigo24%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
23°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 74%
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 43
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
62
AttackIn forecast
36
48
DefenceIn forecast
61
50
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadCelta Vigo
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.52
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
67%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.00
ShotsContext
6.33
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
44%
On target shareContext
37%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
3.33
67%
Box shareContext
48%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
—
OffsidesContext
2.67
16.33
Shots allowedContext
12.67
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.00
BlocksContext
2.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
498
PassesContext
582
427
Accurate passesContext
513
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.65
13.00
FoulsContext
10.67
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.67
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
6.80
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
42%
On target shareContext
43%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
4.70
68%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
3.83
OffsidesContext
3.14
16.90
Shots allowedContext
14.20
6.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.40
BlocksContext
2.90
4.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
71%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
462
PassesContext
496
391
Accurate passesContext
430
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.20
FoulsContext
11.00
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
LLW
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,187 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 50 · 3 pts vs 3.0 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 26 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 564 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,187 km | 1,531 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
6Jon Martín
5Zubeldia
2J. Aramburu
8Beñat Turrientes
21Y. Herrera
7Barrenetxea
10Mikel Oyarzabal
14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
3Marcos Alonso
18Yoel Lago
15Alvaro Núñez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
8Miguel Román
17Javi Rueda
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
28Andrés Antañón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Celta Vigo · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
5 Real Sociedad wins3 draws2 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.20 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 25 Jan 2026Real Sociedad3–1Celta Vigo
- 19 Oct 2025Celta Vigo1–1Real Sociedad
- 13 May 2025Real Sociedad0–1Celta Vigo
- 21 Dec 2024Celta Vigo2–0Real Sociedad
- 20 Jan 2024Celta Vigo0–1Real Sociedad
- 19 Aug 2023Real Sociedad1–1Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.34 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 3.33 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 7.50 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 3.40 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 4.23
Red cards0.23league 0.20
Cards 5+37%league 43%
Fouls25.1league 25.5
Penalties0.21league 0.33
Home wins37%league 53%
Real Sociedad4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D11 Apr 26H · Alaves3–33
- L13 May 25H · Celta Vigo0–13
- D21 Apr 24A · Getafe1–12
- D2 Jan 24H · Alaves1–16
Celta Vigo5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Sep 25A · Rayo Vallecano1–11
- W13 May 25A · Real Sociedad1–01
- W15 May 24H · Athletic Club2–12
- D13 Jan 24A · Mallorca1–11
- D11 Dec 23A · Rayo Vallecano0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad3 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Celta Vigo3 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
