Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were clear favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 6 days of rest, Elche 7 and had to travel 572 km.
Away travel572 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Sociedad62%
Draw22%
Elche16%
Real Sociedad55%
Draw24%
Elche21%
Real Sociedad62%
Draw22%
Elche16%
Real Sociedad54%
Draw24%
Elche21%
Real Sociedad64%
Draw21%
Elche16%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 10
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Elche
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
62
AttackIn forecast
39
48
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadElche
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
86%
Scored inContext
86%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.82
ShotsContext
10.41
4.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
38%
On target shareContext
35%
7.77
Shots in the boxContext
7.18
63%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.94
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.68
Shots allowedContext
14.82
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
3.79
BlocksContext
4.09
2.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
66%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
423
PassesContext
505
347
Accurate passesContext
438
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.59
FoulsContext
12.64
12.05
Fouls sufferedContext
13.41
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.31
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
90%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.10
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
44%
On target shareContext
34%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
59%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.50
Shots allowedContext
18.10
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.00
BlocksContext
4.60
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
426
PassesContext
480
351
Accurate passesContext
411
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.20
FoulsContext
12.40
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km154 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel572 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 572 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 154 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
5Zubeldia
20Odriozola
15Pablo Marín
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
10Mikel Oyarzabal
24L. Sučić
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
11Germán Valera
18John Nwankwo
23Víctor Chust
22D. Affengruber
21L. Pétrot
16Martim Neto
14Aleix Febas
19G. Diangana
9André Silva
20Á. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Elche-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.45
Elche · Away
0.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Villarreal | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 H |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 63 · 1.29 per game | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Real Sociedad wins1 draws0 Elche wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.29
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets71% · 0%
- 7 Nov 2025Elche1–1Real Sociedad
- 19 Mar 2023Real Sociedad2–0Elche
- 27 Aug 2022Elche0–1Real Sociedad
- 10 Apr 2022Elche1–2Real Sociedad
- 26 Sep 2021Real Sociedad1–0Elche
- 7 May 2021Real Sociedad2–0Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.73 | 2.82 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 82% | 68% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Real Sociedad | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 3.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 8.09 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 14/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 13/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 12/22 | 18% 4/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.87 | 4.41 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 77% 17/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Real Sociedad | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.70 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.40 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.60league 4.14
Red cards0.30league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 45%
Fouls23.9league 24.5
Penalties0.20league 0.37
Home wins40%league 48%
Real Sociedad1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Oct 25H · Rayo Vallecano0–11
Elche1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Oct 25H · Athletic Club0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad22 games · scored 30 · conceded 30
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
8
8
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
8
76-90
Elche22 games · scored 30 · conceded 32
5
8
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
8
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
13
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
0-15
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
