Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Espanyol. Real Sociedad had 2.9 days of rest, Espanyol 6.9 and had to travel 399 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel399 kmRest days2.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Sociedad47%
Draw24%
Espanyol29%
Real Sociedad47%
Draw25%
Espanyol28%
Real Sociedad45%
Draw24%
Espanyol31%
Real Sociedad39%
Draw25%
Espanyol36%
Real Sociedad47%
Draw24%
Espanyol30%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
Warm
26°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 45%
Referee · SpainManuel Jesus Orellana Cid
- Cards per match 6.3
- Penalties per match 0.55
- Matches 11
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
62
AttackIn forecast
36
48
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadEspanyol
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
2.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
12.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
38%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
63%
Box shareContext
53%
5%
ConversionContext
17%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
19.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
9.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
5.00
BlocksContext
3.50
6.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
72%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
535
PassesContext
392
469
Accurate passesContext
330
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.00
FoulsContext
18.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
7.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
4.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
38%
On target shareContext
36%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
66%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
3.43
OffsidesContext
2.63
17.00
Shots allowedContext
14.60
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.50
BlocksContext
4.10
4.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
71%
Save rateContext
65%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
470
PassesContext
332
398
Accurate passesContext
258
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.40
FoulsContext
14.90
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
LL
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,187 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 38 · 0 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9La Liga 2026-2027, 26 Aug | 6.9La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 399 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,187 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
31Jon Martín
5Zubeldia
2J. Aramburu
7Barrenetxea
18Carlos Soler
8Beñat Turrientes
24L. Sučić
10Mikel Oyarzabal
9O. Óskarsson
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
21Roger Hinojo
14Unai Núñez
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
8Edu Expósito
4Urko González
24T. Dolan
28Javi Hernández
22Álex Calatrava
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad+1.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Espanyol-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
No home games yet this season.
Espanyol · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Real Sociedad wins2 draws1 Espanyol wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 23 May 2026Espanyol1–1Real Sociedad
- 24 Aug 2025Real Sociedad2–2Espanyol
- 9 Feb 2025Real Sociedad2–1Espanyol
- 24 Aug 2024Espanyol0–1Real Sociedad
- 13 Feb 2023Espanyol2–3Real Sociedad
- 18 Sep 2022Real Sociedad2–1Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Real Sociedad | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.40 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | — | |
| Match total | 10.00 | — | 10.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.50 | 4.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Real Sociedad | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.63 | 10.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 5.30 | 4.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid Spain · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.55league 4.35
Red cards0.73league 0.22
Cards 5+73%league 48%
Fouls29.4league 25.7
Penalties0.55league 0.39
Home wins64%league 48%
Real SociedadNo previous matches with this referee.
EspanyolNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Espanyol2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
2
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
