Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Getafe. Real Sociedad had 11.3 days of rest, Getafe 9 and had to travel 365 km.
Away travel365 kmRest days11.3 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Sociedad45%
Draw28%
Getafe27%
Real Sociedad48%
Draw26%
Getafe26%
Real Sociedad46%
Draw28%
Getafe26%
Real Sociedad38%
Draw29%
Getafe33%
Real Sociedad46%
Draw26%
Getafe28%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 36
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Getafe
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
62
AttackIn forecast
27
48
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadGetafe
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
90%
Scored inContext
58%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.65
ShotsContext
8.90
4.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.93
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.65
Shots in the boxContext
5.45
63%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.72
OffsidesContext
2.75
12.81
Shots allowedContext
10.74
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.93
3.36
BlocksContext
2.57
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
66%
Save rateContext
78%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
441
PassesContext
280
366
Accurate passesContext
194
83%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.00
FoulsContext
13.90
11.74
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
3.06
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.16
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.80
ShotsContext
8.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
36%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
62%
Box shareContext
73%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.10
BlocksContext
2.78
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
67%
Save rateContext
84%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
472
PassesContext
244
397
Accurate passesContext
160
84%
Pass accuracyContext
66%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.70
FoulsContext
14.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest11.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel365 km601 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.3La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 365 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 601 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
6Elustondo
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
15Pablo Marín
23Brais Méndez
14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
2D. Dakonam
3A. Abqar
15Sebastián Boselli
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
10M. Satriano
19L. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Getafe+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.75points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-4
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Getafe · Away
1.25points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-8
- Scored
- 0.81
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 39 of 90 · 1.30 per game | 41 of 90 · 1.37 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Real Sociedad wins4 draws2 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.10
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 9 Jan 2026Getafe1–2Real Sociedad
- 26 Jan 2025Real Sociedad0–3Getafe
- 1 Sep 2024Getafe0–0Real Sociedad
- 21 Apr 2024Getafe1–1Real Sociedad
- 24 Sep 2023Real Sociedad4–3Getafe
- 8 Apr 2023Real Sociedad2–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 1.90 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 29% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 3% | |
| Both teams scored | 81% | 32% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 42% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Real Sociedad | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 1.60 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.77 | 4.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 10.32 | 8.93 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 21/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 17/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 15/31 | 29% 9/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 5.55 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 17/31 | 77% 24/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 10/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Real Sociedad | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.00 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 4.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 6.50 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.36league 4.27
Red cards0.39league 0.28
Cards 5+69%league 48%
Fouls24.1league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins44%league 49%
Real Sociedad6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W22 Nov 25A · Osasuna3–12
- L19 Sep 25A · Real Betis1–36
- L23 Apr 25A · Alaves0–15
- L2 Mar 24A · Sevilla2–32
- D17 Dec 23H · Real Betis0–03
Getafe5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- L22 Feb 26H · Sevilla0–12
- L6 Dec 25A · Villarreal0–26
- D27 Sep 25H · Levante1–14
- L1 Dec 23A · Las Palmas0–26
- D30 Sep 23H · Villarreal0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad31 games · scored 49 · conceded 48
3
8
0-15
8
5
16-30
10
10
31-45
10
9
46-60
7
4
61-75
11
12
76-90
Getafe31 games · scored 27 · conceded 32
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
2
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
