Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 6.2 days of rest, Girona 5.3 and had to travel 419 km.
Away travel419 kmRest days6.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Sociedad50%
Draw27%
Girona23%
Real Sociedad53%
Draw25%
Girona22%
Real Sociedad52%
Draw26%
Girona22%
Real Sociedad43%
Draw28%
Girona29%
Real Sociedad51%
Draw26%
Girona24%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 33
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Girona
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
62
AttackIn forecast
49
48
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadGirona
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.93
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
67%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.47
ShotsContext
9.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
35%
On target shareContext
40%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
65%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.91
OffsidesContext
2.18
11.93
Shots allowedContext
16.93
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.50
BlocksContext
3.80
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.73
65%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
439
PassesContext
414
362
Accurate passesContext
348
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
15.13
FoulsContext
10.73
11.93
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
8.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
37%
On target shareContext
43%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
66%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.30
Shots allowedContext
17.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
2.38
BlocksContext
4.10
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
68%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
426
PassesContext
421
346
Accurate passesContext
354
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.70
FoulsContext
12.00
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel419 km1,022 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 5.3La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 419 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 153 km | 1,022 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
4Jon Gorrotxategi
7Barrenetxea
18Carlos Soler
23Brais Méndez
14T. Kubo
11Gonçalo Guedes
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
21Bryan Gil
18A. Ounahi
15V. Tsyhankov
19V. Vanat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-1.8 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Girona+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.57
Girona · Away
0.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-4
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 2–3 H | L 0–5 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 39 · 0.77 per game | 12 of 39 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Real Sociedad wins3 draws0 Girona wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 18 May 2025Real Sociedad3–2Girona
- 19 Oct 2024Girona0–1Real Sociedad
- 3 Feb 2024Girona0–0Real Sociedad
- 12 Aug 2023Real Sociedad1–1Girona
- 13 May 2023Real Sociedad2–2Girona
- 2 Oct 2022Girona3–5Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.93 | |
| Match goals | 2.73 | 2.80 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 53% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 33% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Real Sociedad | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.93 | 5.31 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 9.77 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 9/15 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 8/15 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 1.27 | |
| Match total | 4.73 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 4/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Real Sociedad | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.75 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 4.13
Red cards0.27league 0.29
Cards 5+48%league 46%
Fouls23.8league 24.7
Penalties0.24league 0.34
Home wins39%league 47%
Real Sociedad4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Girona3–21
- W4 May 24H · Las Palmas2–02
- W26 Nov 23H · Sevilla2–12
- D19 Aug 23H · Celta Vigo1–12
Girona3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L30 Aug 25H · Sevilla0–20
- L18 May 25A · Real Sociedad2–33
- W22 Oct 23H · Almeria5–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad15 games · scored 19 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
8
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Girona15 games · scored 13 · conceded 29
2
2
0-15
4
6
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
7
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
