Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Real Sociedad had 14.7 days of rest, Levante 13.8 and had to travel 447 km.
Away travel447 kmRest days14.7 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real Sociedad49%
Draw26%
Levante25%
Real Sociedad54%
Draw25%
Levante22%
Real Sociedad50%
Draw26%
Levante24%
Real Sociedad41%
Draw27%
Levante31%
Real Sociedad50%
Draw25%
Levante26%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 40
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Levante
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
62
AttackIn forecast
55
48
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadLevante
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.66
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
90%
Scored inContext
66%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.48
ShotsContext
11.14
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
38%
On target shareContext
31%
7.62
Shots in the boxContext
7.21
63%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.03
Shots allowedContext
16.17
4.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.28
3.46
BlocksContext
4.31
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
65%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
438
PassesContext
345
363
Accurate passesContext
272
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.28
FoulsContext
12.52
11.45
Fouls sufferedContext
12.34
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.68
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
14.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
28%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
64%
Box shareContext
58%
19%
ConversionContext
9%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.63
15.90
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.80
BlocksContext
3.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
432
PassesContext
350
360
Accurate passesContext
279
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.70
FoulsContext
12.40
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levante
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel447 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Mar | 13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 9.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
18Carlos Soler
8Beñat Turrientes
11Gonçalo Guedes
24L. Sučić
7Barrenetxea
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
20Oriol Rey
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
26Kareem Tunde
18Iker Losada
17Víctor García
19Carlos Espí
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Levante+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.71points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-4
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.50
Levante · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 37 of 84 · 1.32 per game | 25 of 84 · 0.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Real Sociedad wins1 draws2 Levante wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025Levante1–1Real Sociedad
- 6 May 2022Levante2–1Real Sociedad
- 28 Aug 2021Real Sociedad1–0Levante
- 7 Mar 2021Real Sociedad1–0Levante
- 19 Dec 2020Levante2–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.66 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.83 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 45% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 52% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 34% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Real Sociedad | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.90 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.52 | 4.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.52 | 5.69 | |
| Match total | 10.04 | 9.73 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 19/29 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 13/29 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 4.69 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 15/29 | 72% 21/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 8/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Real Sociedad | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.20 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.83league 4.21
Red cards0.38league 0.28
Cards 5+58%league 47%
Fouls24.6league 24.5
Penalties0.43league 0.36
Home wins55%league 48%
Real SociedadNo previous matches with this referee.
Levante3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L8 Feb 26A · Athletic Club2–42
- L21 Nov 25A · Valencia0–12
- D14 Sep 25H · Real Betis2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad29 games · scored 44 · conceded 45
2
7
0-15
6
4
16-30
10
10
31-45
9
9
46-60
7
4
61-75
10
11
76-90
Levante29 games · scored 34 · conceded 48
4
6
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
11
31-45
6
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
14
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
