Real Sociedad vs Mallorca – 24 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 6 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:30 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 18th · 2 pts · 5 played DDLLL

1–0Full time

Mallorca 19th · 2 pts · 5 played LDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Sociedad were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Real Sociedad had 5 days of rest, Mallorca 3.2 and had to travel 567 km.

Away travel567 kmRest days5 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real Sociedad45%

Draw27%

Mallorca27%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.08

Real Sociedad46%

Draw26%

Mallorca27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Real Sociedad46%

Draw27%

Mallorca27%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.06

Real Sociedad38%

Draw28%

Mallorca34%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.21

Real Sociedad46%

Draw26%

Mallorca28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.16

Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 3

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Mallorca

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

62 AttackIn forecast 50

48 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Mallorca

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.20 ShotsContext 11.00

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

31% On target shareContext 42%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

62% Box shareContext 65%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

15.20 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

5.75 BlocksContext 3.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

59% Save rateContext 74%

56% PossessionIn forecast 44%

466 PassesContext 378

396 Accurate passesContext 309

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.68

16.00 FoulsContext 11.20

8.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.80 ShotsContext 9.60

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

32% On target shareContext 34%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

65% Box shareContext 65%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.20 Shots allowedContext 17.30

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40

3.33 BlocksContext 4.30

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.33

59% Save rateContext 79%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

459 PassesContext 409

392 Accurate passesContext 336

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.30 FoulsContext 12.90

8.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,482 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Mallorca

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel567 km407 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Mallorca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Sep	3.2La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	567 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,482 km	407 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Álex Remiro(G)

17Sergio Gómez 16D. Ćaleta-Car 5Zubeldia 2J. Aramburu

18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 23Brais Méndez

7Barrenetxea 10Mikel Oyarzabal 14T. Kubo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Mallorca Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1Leo Román(G)

3Toni Lato 24M. Valjent 21Raíllo 27David López 23Pablo Maffeo

20Pablo Torre 5Omar Mascarell 6Antonio Sánchez

18Mateo Joseph 7V. Muriqi

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Mallorca Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad-0.7 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Mallorca+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Mallorca · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Mallorca
Real Madrid	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Espanyol	D 2–2 H	L 2–3 A
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Real Sociedad wins1 draws2 Mallorca wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.63 Over 2.513% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 25%

12 Apr 2025Real Sociedad0–2Mallorca
17 Sep 2024Mallorca1–0Real Sociedad
18 Feb 2024Mallorca1–2Real Sociedad
21 Oct 2023Real Sociedad1–0Mallorca
12 Mar 2023Mallorca1–1Real Sociedad
19 Oct 2022Real Sociedad1–0Mallorca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.80	2.00
Match goals	2.80	3.00	2.54
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	80%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	5	5

	Real Sociedad	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.80	2.00
Match goals	2.80	3.00	2.54
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	80%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	7.80	4.40
Corners conceded	3.60	4.60
Match total	11.40	9.00	9.25
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	60% 3/5	20% 1/5
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.60	4.00	4.13
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	40% 2/5

	Real Sociedad	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	7.50	3.78
Corners conceded	3.50	5.89
Match total	11.00	9.67	9.25
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.10
Opponent cards	1.60	1.50
Match total	3.50	3.60	4.13
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.33league 3.84

Red cards0.00league 0.27

Cards 5+67%league 39%

Fouls32.3league 24.7

Penalties0.33league 0.32

Home wins33%league 45%

Real Sociedad

No previous matches with this referee.

Mallorca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.