Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Osasuna. Real Sociedad had 8.1 days of rest, Osasuna 8.3 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days8.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Sociedad42%
Draw28%
Osasuna30%
Real Sociedad44%
Draw27%
Osasuna29%
Real Sociedad41%
Draw28%
Osasuna31%
Real Sociedad35%
Draw28%
Osasuna37%
Real Sociedad43%
Draw27%
Osasuna31%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 40
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Osasuna
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
62
AttackIn forecast
50
48
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadOsasuna
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
89%
Scored inContext
63%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.44
ShotsContext
11.07
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
38%
On target shareContext
30%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.08
64%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.06
12.78
Shots allowedContext
12.52
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.54
BlocksContext
3.46
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.54
65%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
429
PassesContext
368
354
Accurate passesContext
294
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.37
FoulsContext
13.15
11.52
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
12.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
43%
On target shareContext
25%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
63%
Box shareContext
68%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.11
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.60
BlocksContext
3.33
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
67%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
406
PassesContext
362
332
Accurate passesContext
294
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.90
FoulsContext
14.20
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel61 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 705 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
5Zubeldia
2J. Aramburu
8Beñat Turrientes
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
23Brais Méndez
7Barrenetxea
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
18Raúl Moro
10Aimar Oroz
21Víctor Muñoz
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Osasuna-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.85
- Conceded
- 1.54
Osasuna · Away
0.64points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-9
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Oviedo | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 78 · 1.23 per game | 34 of 78 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
6 Real Sociedad wins1 draws3 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.30 – 0.70
Over 2.520%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets50% · 20%
- 22 Nov 2025Osasuna1–3Real Sociedad
- 2 Feb 2025Osasuna2–1Real Sociedad
- 27 Oct 2024Real Sociedad0–2Osasuna
- 10 Feb 2024Real Sociedad0–1Osasuna
- 2 Dec 2023Osasuna1–1Real Sociedad
- 28 Apr 2023Osasuna0–2Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.37 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 81% | 48% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 37% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Real Sociedad | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.70 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.52 | 4.87 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 8.00 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 18/27 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 13/27 | 9% 2/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.41 | 2.41 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 4.93 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 15/27 | 85% 23/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 8/27 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Real Sociedad | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.67 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.80 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.60league 4.21
Red cards0.33league 0.28
Cards 5+63%league 47%
Fouls25.8league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.37
Home wins45%league 47%
Real Sociedad5 with this referee
Record0-4-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D1 Feb 26A · Athletic Club1–13
- D20 Dec 25A · Levante1–12
- D20 Apr 25A · Villarreal2–21
- L13 May 24A · Barcelona0–23
- D25 Aug 23A · Las Palmas0–04
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D24 May 25A · Alaves1–12
- D28 Jan 24A · Sevilla1–10
- L7 Oct 23A · Real Madrid0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad27 games · scored 40 · conceded 41
2
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
7
4
61-75
10
10
76-90
Osasuna26 games · scored 32 · conceded 32
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
11
4
31-45
7
46-60
2
12
61-75
13
5
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
