Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Betis. Real Sociedad had 5 days of rest, Real Betis 6.1 and had to travel 741 km.
Away travel741 kmRest days5 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Sociedad34%
Draw27%
Real Betis38%
Real Sociedad37%
Draw27%
Real Betis36%
Real Sociedad35%
Draw27%
Real Betis37%
Real Sociedad28%
Draw26%
Real Betis46%
Real Sociedad35%
Draw26%
Real Betis39%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 41
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
62
AttackIn forecast
79
48
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadReal Betis
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.53
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
85%
Scored inContext
88%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.38
ShotsContext
13.88
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.62
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.53
Shots in the boxContext
8.24
62%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.06
Shots allowedContext
11.82
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.24
3.48
BlocksContext
3.06
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.28
66%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
438
PassesContext
466
363
Accurate passesContext
396
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.76
FoulsContext
10.56
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.82
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.90
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
39%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
58%
Box shareContext
51%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.88
14.30
Shots allowedContext
8.90
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.20
BlocksContext
2.40
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
66%
Save rateContext
84%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
479
PassesContext
516
402
Accurate passesContext
445
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.50
FoulsContext
10.70
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,187 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Real Betis
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel741 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 4 May | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 741 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,187 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
6Elustondo
7Barrenetxea
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
16Valentín Gómez
3Diego Llorente
24Aitor Ruibal
21Marc Roca
6Sergi Altimira
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Real Betis+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.65points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-5
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.47
Real Betis · Away
1.35points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-8-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.41
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 3–3 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Alaves | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 1–5 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 3–5 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 43 of 99 · 1.30 per game | 50 of 99 · 1.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Real Sociedad wins4 draws4 Real Betis wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets50% · 60%
- 19 Sep 2025Real Betis3–1Real Sociedad
- 16 Feb 2025Real Betis3–0Real Sociedad
- 1 Dec 2024Real Sociedad2–0Real Betis
- 19 May 2024Real Betis0–2Real Sociedad
- 17 Dec 2023Real Sociedad0–0Real Betis
- 25 Apr 2023Real Betis0–0Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.53 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.09 | 2.74 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 47% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 65% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 12% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Real Sociedad | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.90 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.65 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.06 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 9.36 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 23/34 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 18/34 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 15/34 | 27% 9/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.47 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.59 | 4.38 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 20/34 | 62% 21/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 12/34 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Real Sociedad | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 7.40 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.20 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.83league 4.30
Red cards0.37league 0.27
Cards 5+59%league 47%
Fouls24.6league 24.6
Penalties0.41league 0.36
Home wins56%league 49%
Real Sociedad1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Apr 26H · Levante2–02
Real Betis5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Mar 26A · Athletic Club1–21
- D14 Sep 25A · Levante2–22
- W12 May 24H · Almeria3–20
- D3 Dec 23A · Almeria0–04
- W2 Sep 23H · Rayo Vallecano1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad34 games · scored 52 · conceded 53
3
8
0-15
9
7
16-30
10
10
31-45
10
10
46-60
8
4
61-75
12
14
76-90
Real Betis34 games · scored 52 · conceded 41
4
10
0-15
11
6
16-30
8
8
31-45
9
6
46-60
9
5
61-75
11
6
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
