Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Sociedad34.5%fair odds 2.90
Draw27.1%fair odds 3.69
Real Betis38.4%fair odds 2.61
Expected goals1.30 – 1.39total 2.69
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Sociedad ↓ · Real Betis → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Sociedad goals, columns Real Betis goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.75
- 0–18.8%11.43
- 1–28.5%11.75
- 1–08.2%12.22
- 2–18.0%12.51
- 0–07.4%13.47
- 0–26.5%15.32
- 2–05.8%17.37
- 2–25.5%18.02
- 1–33.9%25.39
Winning margin
5.4%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 18.58
10.1%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 9.88
19.0%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 5.27
27.1%
Draw
fair 3.69
20.3%
Real Betis by 1
fair 4.94
11.5%
Real Betis by 2
fair 8.72
6.6%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 15.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Real Sociedad goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Real Betis goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 34.5% | 34.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Real Betis win | 38.4% | 38.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 53.9% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.3% | 58.0% | -2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.30 | 1.37 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.39 | 1.46 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Sociedad win34.5%2.90
- Draw27.1%3.69
- Real Betis win38.4%2.61
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw61.6%1.62
- Double chance Real Sociedad or Real Betis72.9%1.37
- Double chance Real Betis or draw65.5%1.53
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad47.3%2.11
- Draw no bet Real Betis52.7%1.90
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.6%1.32
- Over 2.550.4%1.98
- Over 3.528.4%3.52
- Over 4.513.6%7.36
- Under 1.524.4%4.11
- Under 2.549.6%2.02
- Under 3.571.6%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes55.3%1.81
- No44.7%2.24
- Yes and over 2.542.4%2.36
- Real Sociedad win and yes17.0%5.90
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Real Betis win and yes18.7%5.36
Team goals
- Real Sociedad over 0.572.9%1.37
- Real Sociedad over 1.537.5%2.67
- Real Sociedad over 2.514.4%6.95
- Real Betis over 0.575.1%1.33
- Real Betis over 1.540.4%2.47
- Real Betis over 2.516.4%6.11
- Real Sociedad clean sheet24.9%4.01
- Real Betis clean sheet27.1%3.68
- Real Sociedad win to nil17.5%5.71
- Real Betis win to nil19.7%5.07
Handicap
- Real Sociedad −1.515.5%6.45
- Real Sociedad −2.55.4%18.58
- Real Betis +1.584.5%1.18
- Real Betis +2.594.6%1.06
- Real Betis −1.518.1%5.52
- Real Sociedad +1.581.9%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored344
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right57.3%
BTTS called right57.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 70 | 37.8% | 31.4% |
| 40–50% | 137 | 44.5% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 54.7% | 61.8% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 63.9% | 62.9% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.5% | 85.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 278 of 344 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5764 | 0.5705 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 344 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.