Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 52). Real Sociedad had 13.9 days of rest, Real Madrid 13.8 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days13.9 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Sociedad18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Real Sociedad18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Real Sociedad18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Real Sociedad13%
Draw21%
Real Madrid66%
Real Sociedad18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 31
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
62
AttackIn forecast
89
48
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadReal Madrid
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.52
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
15.67
ShotsContext
20.00
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
34%
On target shareContext
35%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
58%
Box shareContext
50%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.00
Shots allowedContext
5.67
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
6.50
BlocksContext
—
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
40%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
442
PassesContext
651
382
Accurate passesContext
595
86%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.20
14.33
FoulsContext
9.67
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
40%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.40
ShotsContext
19.30
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.30
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
63%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.30
Shots allowedContext
9.30
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.11
BlocksContext
3.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
53%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
444
PassesContext
600
379
Accurate passesContext
543
85%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.31
13.30
FoulsContext
8.30
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km626 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 626 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
5Zubeldia
6Elustondo
28Pablo Marín
4Jon Gorrotxategi
7Barrenetxea
22Mikel Goti
11Gonçalo Guedes
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
3Éder Militão
2Dani Carvajal
19Dani Ceballos
14A. Tchouaméni
7Vinícius
15A. Güler
21Brahim Díaz
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Madrid+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Real Madrid · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Real Sociedad wins3 draws6 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.40
Over 2.520%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets30% · 60%
- 24 May 2025Real Madrid2–0Real Sociedad
- 14 Sep 2024Real Sociedad0–2Real Madrid
- 26 Apr 2024Real Sociedad0–1Real Madrid
- 17 Sep 2023Real Madrid2–1Real Sociedad
- 2 May 2023Real Sociedad2–0Real Madrid
- 29 Jan 2023Real Madrid0–0Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Real Sociedad | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.50 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 2.33 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Real Sociedad | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 10.75 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 3.61
Red cards0.23league 0.24
Cards 5+52%league 33%
Fouls25.4league 24.3
Penalties0.39league 0.30
Home wins35%league 45%
Real Sociedad2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Feb 24A · Girona0–03
- W30 Sep 23H · Athletic Club3–02
Real Madrid4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W4 May 25H · Celta Vigo3–22
- D2 Mar 24A · Valencia2–24
- W28 Oct 23A · Barcelona2–11
- W12 Aug 23A · Athletic Club2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Real Madrid3 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
1
6
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
