Real Sociedad vs Sevilla – 24 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 10 Fri, Oct 24 · 20:00 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 18th · 6 pts · 9 played LWLLD

2–1Full time

Sevilla 9th · 13 pts · 9 played WLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Sociedad were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Real Sociedad had 5.2 days of rest, Sevilla 6.3 and had to travel 741 km.

Away travel741 kmRest days5.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real Sociedad43%

Draw28%

Sevilla30%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.13

Real Sociedad43%

Draw27%

Sevilla30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Real Sociedad43%

Draw28%

Sevilla30%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.13

Real Sociedad36%

Draw28%

Sevilla36%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.27

Real Sociedad43%

Draw27%

Sevilla30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 8

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Sevilla

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

62 AttackIn forecast 48

48 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Sevilla

0.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.79

78% Scored inContext 100%

11% Clean sheetsContext 22%

14.44 ShotsContext 10.78

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

31% On target shareContext 32%

9.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

65% Box shareContext 70%

6% ConversionContext 17%

3.50 OffsidesContext 4.14

12.89 Shots allowedContext 11.67

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

4.43 BlocksContext 4.57

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.43

65% Save rateContext 80%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

449 PassesContext 405

377 Accurate passesContext 333

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.84

15.22 FoulsContext 15.56

10.22 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.77

70% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.90 ShotsContext 11.40

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

30% On target shareContext 33%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

66% Box shareContext 70%

6% ConversionContext 16%

3.14 OffsidesContext 4.00

13.20 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

4.25 BlocksContext 4.38

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

67% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

448 PassesContext 413

378 Accurate passesContext 343

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.82

14.40 FoulsContext 15.40

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,127 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel741 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct	6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	741 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,127 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Álex Remiro(G)

17Sergio Gómez 5Zubeldia 31Jon Martín 2J. Aramburu

4Jon Gorrotxategi 12Y. Herrera

7Barrenetxea 23Brais Méndez 11Gonçalo Guedes

10Mikel Oyarzabal

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

12G. Suazo 23Marcão 15Fábio Cardoso 2J. Carmona Navarro

6N. Gudelj 18L. Agoumé

11R. Vargas 20M. Sow 10A. Sánchez

7Isaac Romero

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sevilla+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.25

Sevilla · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Barcelona	L 1–2 A	W 4–1 H
Mallorca	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 H
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Real Sociedad wins2 draws4 Sevilla wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 30%

9 Mar 2025Real Sociedad0–1Sevilla
3 Nov 2024Sevilla0–2Real Sociedad
2 Mar 2024Sevilla3–2Real Sociedad
26 Nov 2023Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla
4 Jun 2023Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla
9 Nov 2022Sevilla1–2Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	0.89	1.78
Conceded per game	1.44	1.56
Match goals	2.33	3.33	2.54
Over 1.5	67%	89%
Over 2.5	44%	78%	47%
Over 3.5	22%	44%
Both teams scored	67%	78%	52%
Clean sheets	11%	22%
Failed to score	22%	0%
Games	9	9

	Real Sociedad	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	0.89	1.78
Conceded per game	1.44	1.56
Match goals	2.33	3.33	2.54
Over 1.5	67%	89%
Over 2.5	44%	78%	47%
Over 3.5	22%	44%
Both teams scored	67%	78%	52%
Clean sheets	11%	22%
Failed to score	22%	0%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	7.56	4.11
Corners conceded	4.22	5.78
Match total	11.78	9.89	9.82
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.33	3.00
Opponent cards	2.11	2.11
Match total	4.44	5.11	4.33
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	67% 6/9

	Real Sociedad	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	7.20	4.20
Corners conceded	4.90	5.50
Match total	12.10	9.70	9.82
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.90
Match total	4.00	4.70	4.33
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 4.04

Red cards0.38league 0.29

Cards 5+50%league 44%

Fouls26.0league 24.7

Penalties0.50league 0.29

Home wins75%league 46%

Real Sociedad1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L30 Aug 25A · Oviedo0–11

Sevilla1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L24 Apr 25A · Osasuna0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.