UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 Qualifying rounds Thu, Aug 6 · 18:00 Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim
Red Bull Salzburg
1–0Full time
Pafos
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,165 kmRest days188.9 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Red Bull Salzburg—%
Draw—%
Pafos—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Wals-Siezenheim)

No weather data yet

RefereeDamian Sylwestrzak
  • Cards per match 5.0
  • Penalties per match 0.35
  • Matches 48

Team strength

Red Bull SalzburgPafos
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 35
36 AttackIn forecast 33
29 DefenceIn forecast 38
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Pafos

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Red Bull SalzburgPafos
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
— Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext 50%
— Clean sheetsContext 50%
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext 21%
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext 0%
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext 2.50
— Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 0 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.88
1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90
-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.12
80% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.80 ShotsContext 9.89
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44
29% On target shareContext 35%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.38
65% Box shareContext 70%
10% ConversionContext 9%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.50
9.80 Shots allowedContext 17.89
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22
2.56 BlocksContext 5.63
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38
62% Save rateContext 78%
55% PossessionIn forecast 39%
423 PassesContext 320
342 Accurate passesContext 242
81% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.79
9.50 FoulsContext 11.00
9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.88
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Red Bull Salzburg
Rest188.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Pafos
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,165 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Red Bull Salzburg Pafos
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match188.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,165 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Red Bull Salzburg Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
52C. Zawieschitzky(G)
31D. Schmid 47V. Zabransky 44K. Boma 18N. Veratschnig
32A. Barry 5S. Diabaté
23D. Redzic 30G. Diakité 20E. Baidoo
11Y. Vertessen
Pafos Confirmed XI
3-5-2
99R. Majecki(G)
14N. Ioannou 4David Luiz 5David Goldar
20Biel 6Guga 26I. Šunjić 50Alexandre Brito 8D. Quina
30V. Dragomir 18Lele

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Red Bull Salzburg Absences are shown before kick-off
Pafos Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Red Bull Salzburg · Home No home games yet this season.
Pafos · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Red Bull SalzburgPafosForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals ——
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 ——
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored ——
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
Red Bull SalzburgPafosForecast
Scored per game 1.25—
Conceded per game 1.88—
Match goals 3.13—
Over 1.5 75%—
Over 2.5 50%—
Over 3.5 50%—
Both teams scored 50%—
Clean sheets 13%—
Failed to score 38%—
Games80

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Red Bull SalzburgPafosLeague
Corners
Corners won—7.00
Corners conceded—8.00
Match total—15.008.40
Over 8.5—100% 1/1
Over 9.5—100% 1/1
Over 10.5—100% 1/1
Cards
Cards—2.50
Opponent cards—2.50
Match total—5.005.00
Over 3.5—100% 2/2
Over 4.5—100% 2/2
Red Bull SalzburgPafosLeague
Corners
Corners won4.784.13
Corners conceded3.896.75
Match total8.6710.888.40
Over 8.533% 3/950% 4/8
Over 9.533% 3/950% 4/8
Over 10.533% 3/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.802.10
Opponent cards2.202.20
Match total4.004.305.00
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Damian Sylwestrzak 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.71league 3.47
Red cards0.31league 0.17
Cards 5+56%league 33%
Fouls27.4league 31.0
Penalties0.35league 0.19
Home wins50%league 47%
Red Bull Salzburg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • W23 Jul 25A · Brann4–11
Pafos

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Red Bull Salzburg
No complete event data.
Pafos1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1 1 0-15
5 2 16-30
1 5 31-45
2 46-60
3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Pafos9 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
4 61-75
3 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.