Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 26). Rennes had 14 days of rest, Auxerre 14.8 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Rennes53%
Draw25%
Auxerre22%
Rennes52%
Draw25%
Auxerre23%
Rennes52%
Draw25%
Auxerre22%
Rennes45%
Draw26%
Auxerre28%
Rennes52%
Draw25%
Auxerre23%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 83
Team strength
Rennes
Auxerre
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
63
AttackIn forecast
39
39
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesAuxerre
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
71%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.57
ShotsContext
11.00
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.14
32%
On target shareContext
29%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
66%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
5.00
14.57
Shots allowedContext
11.14
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.83
BlocksContext
3.17
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
486
PassesContext
365
421
Accurate passesContext
290
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.14
FoulsContext
12.29
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.29
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.43
Red cardsContext
0.29
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
9.40
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
34%
On target shareContext
29%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
66%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.67
14.20
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.13
BlocksContext
2.89
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
71%
Save rateContext
73%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
469
PassesContext
384
406
Accurate passesContext
311
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.70
FoulsContext
11.90
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km403 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel392 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 403 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
24A. Rouault
97J. Jacquet
36A. Seidu
26Q. Merlin
8S. Fofana
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
10L. Blas
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
4F. Sierralta
29M. Senaya
7J. Casimir
19D. Namaso
5K. Danois
17O. El Azzouzi
23I. Osman
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Auxerre-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Auxerre · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Rennes wins1 draws2 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 75%
- 6 Apr 2025Rennes0–1Auxerre
- 3 Nov 2024Auxerre4–0Rennes
- 11 Mar 2023Auxerre0–0Rennes
- 11 Sep 2022Rennes5–0Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.14 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Rennes | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.14 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 8.86 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 5.14 | 6.43 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Rennes | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 8.55 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.40 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.16league 3.71
Red cards0.20league 0.32
Cards 5+23%league 34%
Fouls20.7league 24.4
Penalties0.34league 0.53
Home wins51%league 54%
Rennes8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L8 Dec 24A · Nantes0–12
- L25 Aug 24A · Strasbourg1–34
- W17 Mar 24H · Marseille2–01
- W20 Dec 23A · Clermont Foot3–13
- D27 Aug 23H · LE Havre2–21
Auxerre6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L14 May 23A · Stade Brestois 290–10
- W16 Apr 23H · Nantes2–12
- L19 Mar 23A · Strasbourg0–21
- L1 Feb 23A · Monaco2–30
- D16 Oct 22H · Nice1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes7 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Auxerre7 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
