Rennes vs Auxerre – 11 Oct 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 Sun, Oct 11 · 16:15 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 6th · 10 pts · 5 played DWWWL

4–1Full time

Auxerre 15th · 6 pts · 5 played LLLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes were clear favourites.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 28). Absences weigh more on Auxerre. Auxerre were without C. Makosso and B. Okoh. Rennes had 21.9 days of rest, Auxerre 21.1 and had to travel 392 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel392 kmRest days21.9 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Rennes65%

Draw18%

Auxerre16%

Expected goals 2.36 – 1.10

Rennes60%

Draw22%

Auxerre18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Rennes64%

Draw19%

Auxerre17%

Expected goals 2.30 – 1.10

Rennes57%

Draw21%

Auxerre22%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.23

Rennes65%

Draw19%

Auxerre17%

Expected goals 2.35 – 1.12

Over 2.5 67% Both score 60% Likeliest score 2–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 117

Team strength

Rennes

Auxerre

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

63 AttackIn forecast 39

39 DefenceIn forecast 25

70 Form indexContext 32

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Auxerre

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

2.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 3.03

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

80% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.20 ShotsContext 11.60

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 43%

11.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

67% Box shareContext 42%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.67

15.20 Shots allowedContext 13.60

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

4.60 BlocksContext 3.50

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

67% Save rateContext 61%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

464 PassesContext 380

390 Accurate passesContext 307

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.55

13.40 FoulsContext 14.20

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

2.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.22

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.72

80% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.40 ShotsContext 11.70

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

32% On target shareContext 44%

11.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

66% Box shareContext 50%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.14

16.30 Shots allowedContext 12.40

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

5.10 BlocksContext 3.00

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

70% Save rateContext 61%

54% PossessionIn forecast 44%

450 PassesContext 368

377 Accurate passesContext 297

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.40 FoulsContext 13.40

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes WWWDL

Rest21.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected

L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts
W11 SepH · Marseille1–01.6 xPts
W6 SepA · Angers2–11.7 xPts
W30 AugH · Le Mans3–22.2 xPts

Auxerre LLLWW

Rest21.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel392 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

W20 SepH · Stade Brestois 292–11.3 xPts
W12 SepH · Nice1–01.6 xPts
L4 SepA · Lyon1–30.6 xPts
L29 AugH · Angers1–31.8 xPts
L22 AugA · Lens2–50.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep	21.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	392 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30B. Samba(G)

18M. Nagida 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds

45M. Camara 21V. Rongier 28A. Thomasson

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 11Mousa Al Ta'mari

Auxerre Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

23M. Diop(G)

92C. Akpa 4A. Tuanzebe 46A. Piedfort

22F. Oppegård 5K. Danois 8N. Ahamada 27L. Sy

10D. Namaso 21R. Faivre

9C. Archer

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes No reported absences

Auxerre Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −1.2% · Defence line −15.8% of weighted minutes

DEF C. Makosso Starter 6.38 Def −7.3%
DEF B. Okoh Starter 7.14 Def −6.0%
DEF M. Senaya Rotation 6.71 Def −2.2%
ATT R. Mandengue Rotation 6.34 Att −1.1%
MID A. Dioussé Depth 6.65 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
DEF Telli Siwe Depth 6.70 Def −0.1%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): S. Fofana

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+1.3 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Auxerre-0.7 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Auxerre · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Rennes	Auxerre
Lyon	L 0–4 A	L 1–3 A
Angers	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Rennes wins2 draws2 Auxerre wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored17% Clean sheets50% · 50%

22 Feb 2026Auxerre0–3Rennes
19 Oct 2025Rennes2–2Auxerre
6 Apr 2025Rennes0–1Auxerre
3 Nov 2024Auxerre4–0Rennes
11 Mar 2023Auxerre0–0Rennes
11 Sep 2022Rennes5–0Auxerre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	2.40
Match goals	3.40	3.80	3.46
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	67%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	5	5

	Rennes	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.80
Conceded per game	1.80	1.90
Match goals	3.30	3.70	3.46
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	6.00
Corners conceded	6.50	6.80
Match total	12.75	12.80	9.80
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	100% 5/5
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	100% 5/5
Over 10.5	75% 3/4	100% 5/5
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	2.80	1.40
Match total	4.60	3.20	3.35
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	20% 1/5

	Rennes	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	6.44	5.10
Corners conceded	5.56	6.10
Match total	12.00	11.20	9.80
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	3.90	3.50	3.35
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.48league 3.19

Red cards0.24league 0.15

Cards 5+35%league 27%

Fouls24.5league 23.6

Penalties0.38league 0.33

Home wins43%league 46%

Rennes10 with this referee

Record5-0-5 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

W13 Apr 25A · LE Havre5–13
W20 Apr 24A · Nantes3–04
L3 Dec 23A · Marseille0–24
L6 May 23A · Nice1–21
W19 Mar 23A · Paris Saint Germain2–01

Auxerre4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W17 May 26A · Lille2–02
D11 Apr 26H · Nantes0–00
L14 Jan 23A · Lens0–13
L3 Sep 22H · Marseille0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.