Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were clear favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 22). Rennes had 14.8 days of rest, LE Havre 14 and had to travel 202 km.
Away travel202 kmRest days14.8 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Rennes63%
Draw22%
LE Havre16%
Rennes62%
Draw22%
LE Havre16%
Rennes62%
Draw22%
LE Havre16%
Rennes55%
Draw24%
LE Havre21%
Rennes62%
Draw22%
LE Havre16%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 79
Team strength
Rennes
LE Havre
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
63
AttackIn forecast
20
39
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesLE Havre
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
82%
Scored inContext
59%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.29
ShotsContext
11.18
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
36%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.82
62%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.08
13.94
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
4.56
BlocksContext
3.47
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
72%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
459
PassesContext
375
392
Accurate passesContext
307
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.12
FoulsContext
13.59
11.82
Fouls sufferedContext
12.59
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
90%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
39%
On target shareContext
35%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
60%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
6%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.40
BlocksContext
4.20
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
72%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
439
PassesContext
354
371
Accurate passesContext
289
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.40
FoulsContext
12.30
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel202 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 202 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
36A. Seidu
21V. Rongier
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
26Q. Merlin
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
9E. Lepaul
7B. Embolo
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
77Lionel M'Pasi(G)
4G. Lloris
15A. Seko
93A. Sangante
18Y. Zouaoui
14R. Ndiaye
26S. Ebonog
7L. Nego
10F. Mambimbi
33K. Quetant
45I. Soumaré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- LE Havre-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
2.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-1
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
LE Havre · Away
0.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 A | L 0–3 A |
| Metz | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Monaco | W 4–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 4–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Nice | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lens | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lorient | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 2–6 A |
| Points | 29 of 48 · 1.81 per game | 17 of 48 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Rennes wins2 draws0 LE Havre wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 5 Oct 2025LE Havre2–2Rennes
- 13 Apr 2025LE Havre1–5Rennes
- 25 Oct 2024Rennes1–0LE Havre
- 11 Feb 2024LE Havre0–1Rennes
- 27 Aug 2023Rennes2–2LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 3.12 | 2.24 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 53% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 41% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 59% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 47% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 41% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Rennes | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.00 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.24 | 4.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.95 | 8.73 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.23 | 4.11 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Rennes | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.50 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.64
Red cards0.24league 0.33
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls24.7league 24.1
Penalties0.25league 0.45
Home wins51%league 51%
Rennes11 with this referee
Record5-1-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L15 Mar 25A · Lens0–11
- W2 Feb 25H · Strasbourg1–03
- L7 Apr 24A · Monaco0–12
- L12 Nov 23H · Lyon0–14
- D24 Sep 23A · Montpellier0–01
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L16 Feb 25H · Nice1–32
- W3 Nov 24H · Montpellier1–02
- L22 Sep 24A · Monaco1–33
- L20 Dec 23A · Reims0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes17 games · scored 29 · conceded 24
2
3
0-15
8
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
8
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
7
76-90
LE Havre17 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
8
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
