Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rennes. Rennes had 7.1 days of rest, Lille 3.1 and had to travel 448 km.
Away travel448 kmRest days7.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rennes44%
Draw29%
Lille27%
Rennes43%
Draw27%
Lille30%
Rennes43%
Draw29%
Lille27%
Rennes37%
Draw30%
Lille33%
Rennes44%
Draw29%
Lille27%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 103
Team strength
Rennes
Lille
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
63
AttackIn forecast
42
39
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesLille
1.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.52
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
68%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.64
ShotsContext
13.72
4.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.92
Shots in the boxContext
9.76
61%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.65
12.92
Shots allowedContext
9.32
3.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.52
4.08
BlocksContext
2.42
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.39
73%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
464
PassesContext
484
395
Accurate passesContext
414
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.96
FoulsContext
11.20
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.59
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.40
ShotsContext
11.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
34%
On target shareContext
29%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
61%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
7.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.56
3.20
BlocksContext
2.30
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
79%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
489
PassesContext
509
414
Accurate passesContext
434
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.80
FoulsContext
11.40
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,694 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Lille
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel448 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 448 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,694 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
18M. Nagida
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
10L. Blas
70A. Nordin
9E. Lepaul
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
32A. Bouaddi
6N. Bentaleb
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lille-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-2
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lille · Away
1.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Auxerre | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H | W 4–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Lens | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Monaco | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lorient | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 HW 7–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Metz | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 A | W 4–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 4–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 40 of 72 · 1.67 per game | 41 of 72 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Rennes wins4 draws4 Lille wins
Goals per game1.22 – 1.67
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 3 Jan 2026Lille0–2Rennes
- 16 Feb 2025Rennes0–2Lille
- 24 Nov 2024Lille1–0Rennes
- 10 Mar 2024Lille2–2Rennes
- 16 Sep 2023Rennes2–2Lille
- 4 Feb 2023Rennes1–3Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.68 | 1.52 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.80 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 36% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 32% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Rennes | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.20 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 30% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 0% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.24 | 6.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 9.84 | 9.48 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 1.84 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 4.04 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 15/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 11/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Rennes | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.10 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.71
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+34%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 23.9
Penalties0.33league 0.38
Home wins42%league 48%
Rennes5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L24 Aug 25A · Lorient0–42
- L3 Jan 25A · Nice2–33
- D16 Sep 23H · Lille2–21
- W3 Jun 23A · Stade Brestois 292–14
- L27 Aug 22A · Lens1–21
Lille14 with this referee
Record6-3-5
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L16 Jan 26A · Paris Saint Germain0–31
- W5 Dec 25H · Marseille1–00
- W2 Nov 25H · Angers1–01
- W12 Apr 25A · Toulouse2–12
- D1 Nov 24H · Lyon1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes25 games · scored 42 · conceded 35
4
4
0-15
12
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
4
7
61-75
10
10
76-90
Lille25 games · scored 38 · conceded 32
4
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
8
46-60
4
7
61-75
21
6
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
6
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
