Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 36). Rennes had 14.2 days of rest, Lyon 14 and had to travel 567 km.
Away travel567 kmRest days14.2 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Rennes29%
Draw27%
Lyon44%
Rennes29%
Draw27%
Lyon44%
Rennes29%
Draw27%
Lyon44%
Rennes23%
Draw25%
Lyon52%
Rennes29%
Draw27%
Lyon44%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 62
Team strength
Rennes
Lyon
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
63
AttackIn forecast
55
39
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesLyon
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
67%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.67
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
43%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
62%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
3.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
18.67
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
8.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
89%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
473
PassesContext
446
409
Accurate passesContext
389
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.21
8.67
FoulsContext
16.00
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
1.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.90
ShotsContext
14.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
39%
On target shareContext
36%
8.38
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
62%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.40
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.00
BlocksContext
3.30
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
63%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
470
PassesContext
510
410
Accurate passesContext
448
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.14
11.20
FoulsContext
13.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel567 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 567 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
24A. Rouault
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
26Q. Merlin
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
10L. Blas
95P. Frankowski
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Lyon
Confirmed XI
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
7A. Karabec
44Khalis Merah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lyon+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Lyon · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Rennes wins0 draws3 Lyon wins
Goals per game2.38 – 1.88
Over 2.588%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 26 Apr 2025Lyon4–1Rennes
- 18 Aug 2024Rennes3–0Lyon
- 26 Jan 2024Lyon2–3Rennes
- 12 Nov 2023Rennes0–1Lyon
- 9 Apr 2023Lyon3–1Rennes
- 16 Oct 2022Rennes3–2Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Rennes | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 13.67 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.00 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Rennes | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 11.40 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.40 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.43
Red cards0.44league 0.40
Cards 5+45%league 37%
Fouls23.9league 23.2
Penalties0.35league 0.54
Home wins40%league 66%
Rennes6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.5
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W4 May 24A · Metz3–23
- W26 Nov 23H · Reims3–12
- W1 Oct 23H · Nantes3–13
- L23 Apr 23A · Montpellier0–12
- L22 Dec 21A · Monaco1–21
Lyon7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W15 Dec 23A · Monaco1–02
- L14 May 23A · Clermont Foot1–23
- W28 Apr 23A · Strasbourg2–14
- D1 Feb 23H · Stade Brestois 290–00
- D7 Oct 22H · Toulouse1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes3 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Lyon3 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
