Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rennes had 7 days of rest, Nice 2.9 and had to travel 847 km.
Away travel847 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rennes43%
Draw27%
Nice30%
Rennes42%
Draw27%
Nice31%
Rennes42%
Draw27%
Nice31%
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Nice37%
Rennes42%
Draw27%
Nice31%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 55
Team strength
Rennes
Nice
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
63
AttackIn forecast
26
39
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesNice
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
75%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.63
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
33%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
67%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.63
Shots allowedContext
14.88
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.29
BlocksContext
4.75
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
70%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
477
PassesContext
419
411
Accurate passesContext
353
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.88
FoulsContext
11.88
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.38
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
67%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.00
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.78
BlocksContext
5.60
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
72%
Save rateContext
66%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
461
PassesContext
399
395
Accurate passesContext
330
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.20
FoulsContext
11.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nice
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel847 km2,618 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 847 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 2,618 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
36A. Seidu
8S. Fofana
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
10L. Blas
9E. Lepaul
7B. Embolo
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
26M. Bard
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
33A. Mendy
2A. Abdi
24C. Vanhoutte
99S. Abdul Samed
92J. Clauss
10S. Diop
7J. Boga
90Kevin Carlos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Nice-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Nice · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Rennes wins1 draws4 Nice wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.38
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 10 May 2025Rennes2–0Nice
- 3 Jan 2025Nice3–2Rennes
- 13 Jan 2024Rennes2–0Nice
- 5 Nov 2023Nice2–0Rennes
- 6 May 2023Nice2–1Rennes
- 2 Jan 2023Rennes2–1Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Rennes | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 90% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 10.72 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.75 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Rennes | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.66 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.90 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.81
Red cards0.27league 0.30
Cards 5+27%league 38%
Fouls26.0league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.53
Home wins38%league 53%
Rennes5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.0.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D31 Aug 25A · Angers1–12
- L26 Apr 25A · Lyon1–40
- W21 Feb 25H · Reims1–01
- W30 Nov 24H · Saint Etienne5–00
- W1 Feb 23H · Strasbourg3–00
Nice1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Feb 23H · Reims0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes8 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Nice8 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
2
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
