Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Rennes
6th · 24 pts · 15 played
WWWWL
3–1Full time
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 19 pts · 15 played
DLWWW
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Stade Brestois 29. Rennes had 6.8 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7.9 and had to travel 210 km.
Away travel210 kmRest days6.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rennes47%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2926%
Rennes45%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2928%
Rennes45%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2928%
Rennes40%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2933%
Rennes47%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2927%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 81
Team strength
RennesStade Brestois 29
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
47
39
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesStade Brestois 29
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
80%
Scored inContext
60%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.13
ShotsContext
12.07
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
37%
On target shareContext
32%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
61%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.60
14.13
Shots allowedContext
11.93
3.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
4.71
BlocksContext
3.21
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
448
PassesContext
380
382
Accurate passesContext
303
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.73
FoulsContext
12.67
11.73
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.10
ShotsContext
10.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
38%
On target shareContext
35%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
60%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.10
BlocksContext
2.40
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
69%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
437
PassesContext
387
369
Accurate passesContext
312
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.10
FoulsContext
13.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km616 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel210 km1,802 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 210 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 616 km | 1,802 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.2 | 22 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
44S. Coulibaly
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
99P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
10R. Del Castillo
17M. Baldé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Stade Brestois 29-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
2.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.00
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 A | L 0–3 H |
| Metz | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Monaco | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Nice | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lorient | L 0–4 A | D 3–3 A |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 23 of 42 · 1.64 per game | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Rennes wins3 draws2 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.38
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 18 Jan 2025Rennes1–2Stade Brestois 29
- 19 Oct 2024Stade Brestois 291–1Rennes
- 28 Apr 2024Rennes4–5Stade Brestois 29
- 2 Sep 2023Stade Brestois 290–0Rennes
- 3 Jun 2023Stade Brestois 291–2Rennes
- 31 Aug 2022Rennes3–1Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.93 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 47% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Rennes | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.29 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 1.53 | |
| Match total | 4.27 | 3.33 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Rennes | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.45 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 3.68
Red cards0.27league 0.32
Cards 5+36%league 35%
Fouls25.4league 24.1
Penalties0.26league 0.48
Home wins43%league 51%
Rennes11 with this referee
Record6-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L3 May 25A · Toulouse1–22
- W18 Aug 24H · Lyon3–02
- D12 May 24H · Lens1–12
- D10 Mar 24A · Lille2–22
- W11 Feb 24A · LE Havre1–01
Stade Brestois 2913 with this referee
Record3-2-8
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- L29 Oct 25A · LE Havre0–13
- L24 Aug 25A · Toulouse0–21
- L20 Apr 25H · Lens1–31
- L2 Mar 25A · Lyon1–21
- L5 Jan 25A · Angers0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes15 games · scored 24 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
6
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
7
76-90
Stade Brestois 2915 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
3
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
