Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rizespor had 6.9 days of rest, Eyüpspor 7 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rizespor45%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor29%
Rizespor45%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor29%
Rizespor45%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor29%
Rizespor38%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor36%
Rizespor45%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor29%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 7
Team strength
Rizespor
Eyüpspor
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
22
AttackIn forecast
9
35
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporEyüpspor
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
73%
Scored inContext
47%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.47
ShotsContext
11.47
2.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
26%
On target shareContext
34%
6.53
Shots in the boxContext
7.07
55%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.80
13.93
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
4.00
BlocksContext
3.77
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.54
71%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
396
PassesContext
381
326
Accurate passesContext
312
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.13
FoulsContext
11.53
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
80%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
11.90
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
25%
On target shareContext
38%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
52%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.80
13.70
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.67
BlocksContext
3.33
4.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
77%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
417
PassesContext
390
347
Accurate passesContext
318
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.00
FoulsContext
12.00
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,547 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel970 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,547 km | 1,700 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
6G. Papanikolaou
20Q. Laçi
50L. Augusto
10I. Olawoyin
19J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Sowe
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
7H. Akbunar
5E. Ortakaya
6R. Yalçın
11S. Gürler
10K. Demirbay
33T. Stepanenko
9M. Thiam
20M. Łęgowski
70D. Drăguş
19U. Bozok
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
0.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.63
Eyüpspor · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 0.43
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 5–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game | 13 of 42 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Rizespor wins0 draws0 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 20 Apr 2025Rizespor1–0Eyüpspor
- 23 Nov 2024Eyüpspor1–2Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.87 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 27% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 7% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 53% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Rizespor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.08 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.08 | 5.62 | |
| Match total | 8.16 | 10.31 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 2/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.73 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.67 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Rizespor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 9.55 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.71league 4.49
Red cards0.71league 0.26
Cards 5+43%league 48%
Fouls27.0league 26.3
Penalties0.43league 0.26
Home wins43%league 35%
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Aug 23H · Alanyaspor0–03
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor15 games · scored 17 · conceded 23
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Eyüpspor15 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
