Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Rizespor
12th · 10 pts · 10 played
LWLDD
1–0Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 4 pts · 10 played
LLLLD
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
Rizespor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (20 vs 13). Rizespor had 7 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 10 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days7 · 10Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rizespor51%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük23%
Rizespor51%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük24%
Rizespor51%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük24%
Rizespor44%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Rizespor51%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
RefereeÖmer Tolga Güldibi
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
RizesporFatih Karagümrük
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
22
AttackIn forecast
13
35
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporFatih Karagümrük
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.70
ShotsContext
11.10
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
26%
On target shareContext
29%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
57%
Box shareContext
50%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.63
13.50
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.78
BlocksContext
3.67
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
72%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
386
PassesContext
364
316
Accurate passesContext
286
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.55
14.20
FoulsContext
14.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.70
ShotsContext
11.10
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
26%
On target shareContext
29%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
57%
Box shareContext
50%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.63
13.50
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.78
BlocksContext
3.67
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
72%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
386
PassesContext
364
316
Accurate passesContext
286
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.55
14.20
FoulsContext
14.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel970 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Oct | 10Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 703 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
18M. Buljubasic
6G. Papanikolaou
50L. Augusto
20Q. Laçi
19J. Rak-Sakyi
15V. Jurečka
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
29J. Balkovec
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
3E. Roco
6A. Çankaya
14Marius Tresor Doh
5M. Kranevitter
23S. Larsson
8B. Özcan
70Serginho
19D. Fofana
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.40
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 3–4 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 5–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 21 · 0.71 per game | 3 of 21 · 0.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Rizespor wins0 draws1 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 28 Jan 2024Fatih Karagümrük4–0Rizespor
- 1 Sep 2023Rizespor1–0Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Rizespor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.40 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Rizespor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.40 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ömer Tolga Güldibi 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.63
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+0%league 53%
Fouls32.0league 26.2
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins100%league 38%
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
7
61-75
5
3
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
7
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
