Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rizespor. Rizespor had 8 days of rest, Galatasaray 6.9 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rizespor16%
Draw23%
Galatasaray62%
Rizespor15%
Draw22%
Galatasaray63%
Rizespor15%
Draw22%
Galatasaray62%
Rizespor11%
Draw20%
Galatasaray69%
Rizespor16%
Draw24%
Galatasaray60%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 14
Team strength
Rizespor
Galatasaray
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
22
AttackIn forecast
57
35
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporGalatasaray
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.35
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
75%
Scored inContext
90%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.60
ShotsContext
16.55
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
28%
On target shareContext
35%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
52%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.87
13.80
Shots allowedContext
9.30
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.37
3.84
BlocksContext
2.65
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.72
69%
Save rateContext
79%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
379
PassesContext
506
310
Accurate passesContext
444
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.09
13.35
FoulsContext
12.15
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.95
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.76
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.70
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
30%
On target shareContext
32%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
47%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.63
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.90
BlocksContext
3.11
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
372
PassesContext
511
303
Accurate passesContext
446
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.50
FoulsContext
12.80
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Galatasaray
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel970 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
9A. Sowe
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
77N. Lang
11Y. Akgün
53B. Yılmaz
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Galatasaray-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Galatasaray · Away
2.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-1
- Scored
- 2.22
- Conceded
- 0.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Goztepe | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 H | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–5 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 5–2 A | W 4–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 20 of 57 · 1.05 per game | 46 of 57 · 2.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Rizespor wins0 draws5 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.80 – 3.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 30 Aug 2025Galatasaray3–1Rizespor
- 17 Feb 2025Rizespor1–2Galatasaray
- 14 Sep 2024Galatasaray5–0Rizespor
- 8 Mar 2024Galatasaray6–2Rizespor
- 28 Oct 2023Rizespor0–1Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 65% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 55% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 10% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Rizespor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 5.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 3.42 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 8.63 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 4/18 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 4.20 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Rizespor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.90 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.40
Red cards0.36league 0.23
Cards 5+43%league 45%
Fouls23.1league 25.9
Penalties0.14league 0.26
Home wins64%league 36%
Rizespor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Oct 25A · Antalyaspor5–24
- L10 May 25A · Konyaspor1–22
Galatasaray3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W22 Nov 25H · Genclerbirligi3–24
- W15 Aug 25H · Fatih Karagümrük3–00
- W3 May 25H · Sivasspor4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor20 games · scored 24 · conceded 30
4
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
7
61-75
6
9
76-90
Galatasaray20 games · scored 47 · conceded 14
8
2
0-15
8
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
7
2
46-60
9
3
61-75
11
4
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
4
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
6
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
