Rizespor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rizespor15.5%fair odds 6.43
Draw22.6%fair odds 4.42
Galatasaray61.8%fair odds 1.62
Expected goals0.85 – 1.92total 2.77
Likeliest score0–211.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Galatasaray
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rizespor ↓ · Galatasaray → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rizespor goals, columns Galatasaray goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.5%8.69
- 0–111.5%8.72
- 1–110.8%9.26
- 1–29.8%10.18
- 0–37.4%13.60
- 0–06.8%14.67
- 1–36.3%15.94
- 1–04.8%20.80
- 2–14.4%22.87
- 2–24.2%23.87
Winning margin
1.2%
Rizespor by 3+
fair 84.20
3.8%
Rizespor by 2
fair 26.25
10.5%
Rizespor by 1
fair 9.48
22.6%
Draw
fair 4.42
24.4%
Galatasaray by 1
fair 4.10
19.2%
Galatasaray by 2
fair 5.20
18.2%
Galatasaray by 3+
fair 5.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Rizespor goals
43%0
36%1
16%2
4%3
1%4+
Galatasaray goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor win | 15.5% | 16.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Galatasaray win | 61.8% | 60.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 49.9% | +2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.5% | 48.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Rizespor | 0.85 | 0.84 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Galatasaray | 1.92 | 1.83 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rizespor win15.5%6.43
- Draw22.6%4.42
- Galatasaray win61.8%1.62
- Double chance Rizespor or draw38.2%2.62
- Double chance Rizespor or Galatasaray77.4%1.29
- Double chance Galatasaray or draw84.5%1.18
- Draw no bet Rizespor20.1%4.98
- Draw no bet Galatasaray79.9%1.25
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.32
- Over 4.514.8%6.78
- Under 1.523.1%4.33
- Under 2.547.7%2.10
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes49.5%2.02
- No50.5%1.98
- Yes and over 2.538.7%2.58
- Rizespor win and yes7.6%13.09
- Draw and yes15.8%6.32
- Galatasaray win and yes26.0%3.84
Team goals
- Rizespor over 0.557.4%1.74
- Rizespor over 1.521.0%4.75
- Rizespor over 2.55.5%18.06
- Galatasaray over 0.585.3%1.17
- Galatasaray over 1.557.1%1.75
- Galatasaray over 2.530.1%3.33
- Rizespor clean sheet14.7%6.79
- Galatasaray clean sheet42.6%2.35
- Rizespor win to nil7.9%12.65
- Galatasaray win to nil35.8%2.79
Handicap
- Rizespor −1.55.0%20.01
- Rizespor −2.51.2%84.20
- Galatasaray +1.595.0%1.05
- Galatasaray +2.598.8%1.01
- Galatasaray −1.537.4%2.67
- Rizespor +1.562.6%1.60
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored183
Favourite won49.2%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right52.5%
BTTS called right53.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.0% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 78 | 44.2% | 35.9% |
| 50–60% | 44 | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.9% | 76.2% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 76.1% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 157 of 183 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5975 | 0.5842 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.2% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 50.3% | 50.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 157 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 183 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.