Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 14). Samsunspor had 7 days of rest, Kayserispor 6 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Samsunspor53%
Draw25%
Kayserispor21%
Samsunspor54%
Draw25%
Kayserispor21%
Samsunspor53%
Draw26%
Kayserispor21%
Samsunspor46%
Draw27%
Kayserispor27%
Samsunspor52%
Draw26%
Kayserispor22%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 15
Team strength
Samsunspor
Kayserispor
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
15
AttackIn forecast
16
18
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporKayserispor
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.76
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.84
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
68%
Scored inContext
60%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.08
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.68
29%
On target shareContext
33%
7.32
Shots in the boxContext
6.32
59%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.43
11.40
Shots allowedContext
14.28
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.28
3.14
BlocksContext
3.90
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
70%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
417
PassesContext
344
346
Accurate passesContext
274
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.68
FoulsContext
12.24
11.48
Fouls sufferedContext
12.72
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
2.52
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.75
60%
Scored inContext
40%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.00
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
29%
On target shareContext
29%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
58%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
4%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.90
9.70
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.13
BlocksContext
4.63
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
66%
Save rateContext
77%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
490
PassesContext
326
414
Accurate passesContext
257
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.50
FoulsContext
10.70
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.8 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
71İ. Eğribayat(G)
17L. Tómasson
37Ľ. Šatka
24T. Borevković
18Z. Yavru
10J. Ntcham
5C. Yüksel
21C. Holse
20Y. Kayan
7E. Tavşan
9Marius
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
28R. Civelek
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
30J. Brenet
7Miguel Cardoso
33F. Soyalp
8L. Bénes
18D. Makarov
99T. Sarıarslan
9G. Onugkha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Kayserispor+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.25points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kayserispor · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-8-4
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 2–4 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 29 of 72 · 1.21 per game | 20 of 72 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Samsunspor wins0 draws1 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game1.80 – 0.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Kayserispor1–3Samsunspor
- 1 Jun 2025Samsunspor2–1Kayserispor
- 11 Jan 2025Kayserispor0–1Samsunspor
- 25 Jan 2024Samsunspor2–0Kayserispor
- 27 Aug 2023Kayserispor2–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 0.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.84 | |
| Match goals | 2.28 | 2.60 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 48% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 52% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 40% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Samsunspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 1.80 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 4.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.08 | 5.04 | |
| Match total | 9.37 | 9.65 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 10/24 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.36 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Samsunspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 10.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.70 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.40league 4.44
Red cards0.07league 0.21
Cards 5+47%league 45%
Fouls26.8league 26.0
Penalties0.47league 0.27
Home wins40%league 38%
Samsunspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Feb 26A · Antalyaspor1–32
- D31 Aug 25A · Trabzonspor1–13
Kayserispor2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.4.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L1 Feb 26A · Galatasaray0–45
- L24 Sep 25H · Besiktas0–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor25 games · scored 27 · conceded 30
6
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
10
76-90
Kayserispor25 games · scored 19 · conceded 46
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
12
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
10
61-75
9
9
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
