Samsunspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Samsunspor53.1%fair odds 1.88
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
Kayserispor21.4%fair odds 4.67
Expected goals1.68 – 0.98total 2.66
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kayserispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Samsunspor ↓ · Kayserispor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Samsunspor goals, columns Kayserispor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.24
- 1–011.1%8.97
- 2–09.9%10.14
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 0–07.6%13.13
- 0–16.3%15.98
- 1–25.7%17.69
- 3–05.5%18.13
- 3–15.4%18.49
- 2–24.7%21.09
Winning margin
12.7%
Samsunspor by 3+
fair 7.84
16.5%
Samsunspor by 2
fair 6.06
23.9%
Samsunspor by 1
fair 4.19
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
13.7%
Kayserispor by 1
fair 7.30
5.6%
Kayserispor by 2
fair 17.73
2.1%
Kayserispor by 3+
fair 47.85
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Samsunspor goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Kayserispor goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 53.1% | 52.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Kayserispor win | 21.4% | 22.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | 48.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.4% | 51.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Samsunspor | 1.68 | 1.64 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Kayserispor | 0.98 | 0.98 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Samsunspor win53.1%1.88
- Draw25.5%3.93
- Kayserispor win21.4%4.67
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw78.6%1.27
- Double chance Samsunspor or Kayserispor74.5%1.34
- Double chance Kayserispor or draw46.9%2.13
- Draw no bet Samsunspor71.3%1.40
- Draw no bet Kayserispor28.7%3.48
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.0%1.33
- Over 2.549.6%2.02
- Over 3.527.7%3.61
- Over 4.513.1%7.63
- Under 1.525.0%4.00
- Under 2.550.4%1.98
- Under 3.572.3%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes51.4%1.94
- No48.6%2.06
- Yes and over 2.539.3%2.54
- Samsunspor win and yes23.2%4.30
- Draw and yes17.8%5.60
- Kayserispor win and yes10.4%9.65
Team goals
- Samsunspor over 0.581.3%1.23
- Samsunspor over 1.550.0%2.00
- Samsunspor over 2.523.7%4.22
- Kayserispor over 0.562.5%1.60
- Kayserispor over 1.525.7%3.89
- Kayserispor over 2.57.7%13.02
- Samsunspor clean sheet37.5%2.67
- Kayserispor clean sheet18.7%5.35
- Samsunspor win to nil29.9%3.35
- Kayserispor win to nil11.1%9.04
Handicap
- Samsunspor −1.529.3%3.42
- Samsunspor −2.512.7%7.84
- Kayserispor +1.570.7%1.41
- Kayserispor +2.587.3%1.15
- Kayserispor −1.57.7%12.93
- Samsunspor +1.592.3%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored232
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right53.4%
BTTS called right53.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 94 | 44.1% | 39.4% |
| 50–60% | 60 | 54.9% | 55.0% |
| 60–70% | 26 | 65.0% | 73.1% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 76.0% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 184 of 232 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5930 | 0.5811 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 51.6% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 184 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 232 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.