Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Samsunspor. Samsunspor had 6 days of rest, Kocaelispor 6 and had to travel 769 km.
Away travel769 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Samsunspor45%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor29%
Samsunspor46%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Samsunspor47%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
Samsunspor37%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor36%
Samsunspor44%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor29%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 8
Team strength
Samsunspor
Kocaelispor
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
15
AttackIn forecast
16
18
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporKocaelispor
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
78%
Scored inContext
67%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.67
ShotsContext
10.28
4.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
32%
On target shareContext
35%
7.72
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
61%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.39
Shots allowedContext
10.44
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.27
3.00
BlocksContext
3.24
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
72%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
395
PassesContext
359
324
Accurate passesContext
287
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.33
FoulsContext
13.88
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.70
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.20
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
36%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
55%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.40
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.43
3.25
BlocksContext
2.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
53%
Save rateContext
56%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
435
PassesContext
379
359
Accurate passesContext
309
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.10
FoulsContext
13.56
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km661 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel769 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 769 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 661 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
28S. Gönül
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
5C. Yüksel
29A. Makoumbou
47Jaures Assoumou
20Y. Kayan
7E. Tavşan
9Marius
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
21M. Haïdara
2A. Dijksteel
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
14Show
75T. Bingöl
10K. Linetty
8H. Keïta
7Daniel Agyei
9B. Petković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-2.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Kocaelispor+1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kocaelispor · Away
0.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 23 of 51 · 1.35 per game | 23 of 51 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Samsunspor wins0 draws0 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025Kocaelispor0–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 1.94 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 28% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Samsunspor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.80 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.12 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.35 | 3.59 | |
| Match total | 9.47 | 8.30 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 18% 3/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 4.66 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 7/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Samsunspor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 7.66 | 7.80 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 4.36
Red cards0.63league 0.24
Cards 5+50%league 45%
Fouls28.0league 25.7
Penalties0.50league 0.26
Home wins50%league 37%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L14 Sep 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor18 games · scored 23 · conceded 21
5
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Kocaelispor18 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
