Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Konyaspor. Samsunspor had 20.8 days of rest, Konyaspor 16.8 and had to travel 502 km.
Away travel502 kmRest days20.8 · 16.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Samsunspor46%
Draw27%
Konyaspor27%
Samsunspor51%
Draw26%
Konyaspor24%
Samsunspor46%
Draw27%
Konyaspor26%
Samsunspor39%
Draw28%
Konyaspor33%
Samsunspor45%
Draw28%
Konyaspor27%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 34
Team strength
Samsunspor
Konyaspor
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
15
AttackIn forecast
13
18
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporKonyaspor
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
69%
Scored inContext
78%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
12.38
ShotsContext
13.04
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.04
30%
On target shareContext
31%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
59%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.23
11.38
Shots allowedContext
11.81
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.09
BlocksContext
3.00
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.48
71%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
421
PassesContext
404
350
Accurate passesContext
332
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.62
FoulsContext
11.37
11.58
Fouls sufferedContext
13.26
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.44
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
11.90
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
65%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.56
10.70
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.67
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
73%
Save rateContext
70%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
487
PassesContext
412
410
Accurate passesContext
335
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.30
FoulsContext
11.70
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest20.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Konyaspor
Rest16.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel502 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 16.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 502 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
28S. Gönül
4R. van Drongelen
24T. Borevković
18Z. Yavru
20Y. Kayan
29A. Makoumbou
11E. Kılınç
21C. Holse
70T. Coulibaly
9Marius
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
18B. Kutlu
4A. Demirbağ
39A. Nagalo
23Y. Andzouana
16M. Jevtović
77M. İbrahimoğlu
70K. Olaigbe
10E. Bardhi
9D. Türüç
40J. Muleka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Konyaspor+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-3
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.00
Konyaspor · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.85
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 32 of 75 · 1.28 per game | 30 of 78 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Samsunspor wins1 draws2 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 2 Nov 2025Konyaspor1–3Samsunspor
- 16 Feb 2025Konyaspor0–1Samsunspor
- 14 Sep 2024Samsunspor0–1Konyaspor
- 12 May 2024Konyaspor3–0Samsunspor
- 21 Dec 2023Samsunspor1–1Konyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 2.59 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 22% | |
| Games | 26 | 27 |
| Samsunspor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.36 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.24 | 4.59 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.70 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 11/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 4.74 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 14/26 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Samsunspor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.60 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.60 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 4.42
Red cards0.24league 0.21
Cards 5+47%league 45%
Fouls23.9league 26.1
Penalties0.29league 0.27
Home wins29%league 39%
Samsunspor2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Oct 25H · Fenerbahce0–00
- W18 May 25H · Sivasspor1–01
Konyaspor3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Oct 25A · Genclerbirligi2–13
- L13 Sep 25H · Alanyaspor1–25
- W18 Apr 25A · Hatayspor3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor26 games · scored 29 · conceded 31
6
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
8
10
76-90
Konyaspor27 games · scored 31 · conceded 39
1
2
0-15
7
6
16-30
3
11
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
6
61-75
12
5
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
