Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Trabzonspor. Samsunspor had 8 days of rest, Trabzonspor 8 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Samsunspor35%
Draw28%
Trabzonspor37%
Samsunspor37%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor36%
Samsunspor35%
Draw28%
Trabzonspor37%
Samsunspor28%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor44%
Samsunspor35%
Draw28%
Trabzonspor36%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 24
Team strength
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
15
AttackIn forecast
54
18
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporTrabzonspor
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
75%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.55
ShotsContext
15.25
4.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.45
31%
On target shareContext
36%
7.45
Shots in the boxContext
9.47
59%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.06
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.15
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.32
3.19
BlocksContext
3.89
2.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
73%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
403
PassesContext
426
332
Accurate passesContext
366
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.98
14.55
FoulsContext
12.00
11.05
Fouls sufferedContext
13.85
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.65
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.15
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.60
ShotsContext
16.50
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
25%
On target shareContext
36%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
51%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.70
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.50
BlocksContext
3.56
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
55%
Save rateContext
65%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
450
PassesContext
453
375
Accurate passesContext
396
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.80
FoulsContext
11.80
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Jan | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 1,807 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
47Jaures Assoumou
10J. Ntcham
5C. Yüksel
21C. Holse
19P. Ndiaye
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
14M. Løvik
44A. Batagov
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
19M. Eskihellaç
10E. Muçi
99F. da Silva
30E. Onuachu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-2
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 0.90
Trabzonspor · Away
2.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-2
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 3–4 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | W 4–3 A |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 H | W 4–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 29 of 57 · 1.53 per game | 41 of 57 · 2.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Samsunspor wins2 draws1 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Trabzonspor1–1Samsunspor
- 25 May 2025Trabzonspor2–2Samsunspor
- 4 Jan 2025Samsunspor2–1Trabzonspor
- 4 May 2024Samsunspor3–1Trabzonspor
- 11 Jan 2024Trabzonspor2–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.05 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 65% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 10% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.16 | 4.39 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 9.22 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.25 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 11/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 7/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 9.20 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.30 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.58league 4.43
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls23.4league 25.9
Penalties0.38league 0.26
Home wins46%league 36%
Samsunspor2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W7 Feb 25H · Hatayspor2–01
- W6 Oct 24A · Adana Demirspor3–13
Trabzonspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Nov 25H · Konyaspor3–11
- L8 Mar 25H · Hatayspor1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor20 games · scored 24 · conceded 21
5
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
6
76-90
Trabzonspor20 games · scored 38 · conceded 23
4
1
0-15
4
7
16-30
7
6
31-45
10
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
9
5
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
