Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 23 · 18:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
It was too close to call.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Santa Clara. Santa Clara had 8 days of rest, Famalicao 6.9 and had to travel 1,522 km.
Away travel1,522 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Santa Clara39%
Draw27%
Famalicao34%
Santa Clara35%
Draw26%
Famalicao39%
Santa Clara39%
Draw27%
Famalicao34%
Santa Clara32%
Draw27%
Famalicao41%
Santa Clara39%
Draw27%
Famalicao34%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalIancu Vasilica
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 27
Team strength
Santa Clara
Famalicao
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
29
AttackIn forecast
24
53
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraFamalicao
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
10.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
60%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
1.00
BlocksContext
2.00
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
60%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
354
PassesContext
528
280
Accurate passesContext
457
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.50
FoulsContext
12.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
11.40
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
27%
On target shareContext
38%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
54%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.10
Shots allowedContext
7.80
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
2.50
BlocksContext
2.11
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
70%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
341
PassesContext
434
269
Accurate passesContext
367
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.80
FoulsContext
11.80
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
DW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,123 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 53 · 4 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,522 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,123 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
2Diogo Calila
8José Tavares
6Pedro Ferreira
70Vinícius Lopes
41Daniel Borges
99Sorriso
9Gonçalo Paciência
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
4F. van Breemen
3L. Realpe
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
7Sorriso
10Pedro Santos
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Famalicao · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Santa Clara wins0 draws4 Famalicao wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 18 Jan 2026Santa Clara0–1Famalicao
- 10 Aug 2025Famalicao3–0Santa Clara
- 10 May 2025Santa Clara2–1Famalicao
- 30 Dec 2024Famalicao1–2Santa Clara
- 19 Feb 2023Santa Clara1–3Famalicao
- 28 Aug 2022Famalicao1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Santa Clara | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.20 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.50 | 8.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Santa Clara | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.11 | 8.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iancu Vasilica Portugal · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 4.48
Red cards0.30league 0.24
Cards 5+33%league 43%
Fouls28.4league 25.5
Penalties0.19league 0.33
Home wins59%league 38%
Santa Clara1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Mar 25A · GIL Vicente1–02
Famalicao2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Mar 24A · Guimaraes0–13
- W2 Sep 23H · Farense1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Famalicao2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
