Santa Clara vs Rio Ave – 11 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 29 Sat, Apr 11 · 18:00 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 13th · 28 pts · 28 played DWWWL

0–2Full time

Rio Ave 12th · 30 pts · 28 played DWWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rio Ave. Santa Clara had 7.9 days of rest, Rio Ave 7 and had to travel 1,503 km.

Away travel1,503 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Santa Clara43%

Draw29%

Rio Ave28%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.02

Santa Clara46%

Draw26%

Rio Ave28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Santa Clara43%

Draw29%

Rio Ave28%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.02

Santa Clara36%

Draw30%

Rio Ave35%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.14

Santa Clara43%

Draw28%

Rio Ave29%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.09

Over 2.5 41% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 61

Team strength

Santa Clara

Rio Ave

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

29 AttackIn forecast 18

53 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Rio Ave

0.93 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.04

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

64% Scored inContext 61%

29% Clean sheetsContext 14%

11.21 ShotsContext 9.82

3.46 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

29% On target shareContext 38%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.24

54% Box shareContext 60%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.19 OffsidesContext 2.47

9.68 Shots allowedContext 15.18

3.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.14

2.81 BlocksContext 4.00

2.74 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.48

68% Save rateContext 66%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

360 PassesContext 379

289 Accurate passesContext 314

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.79

15.11 FoulsContext 12.75

14.18 Fouls sufferedContext 14.61

2.79 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

80% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 11.50

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

27% On target shareContext 34%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

50% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 6%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.60

10.20 Shots allowedContext 12.00

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.67 BlocksContext 2.80

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

57% Save rateContext 63%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

348 PassesContext 407

277 Accurate passesContext 338

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.70

16.80 FoulsContext 12.10

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,890 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rio Ave

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,503 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Rio Ave
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,503 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,890 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Gabriel Batista(G)

5Guilherme Romão 94Henrique Silva 23Sidney Lima 42Lucas Soares

49Welinton 35Serginho 8Pedro Ferreira 10Gabriel Silva

26Fernando 77Gustavo Klismahn

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99E. van der Gouw(G)

6N. Abbey 39Gustavo Mancha 32J. Brabec 17M. Vrousai

5A. Ntoi 44T. Nikitscher

18D. Špikić 80O. Pohlmann 7Diogo Bezerra

9Tamble Monteiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rio Ave+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 1.21points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-7
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.00

Rio Ave · Away 1.21points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-5
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 1.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Rio Ave
Sporting CP	L 2–4 AL 1–2 H	L 0–4 A
GIL Vicente	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
AVS	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Guimaraes	W 2–0 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Tondela	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Alverca	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Benfica	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Estrela	L 0–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Estoril	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 AL 0–4 H
Moreirense	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Nacional	D 3–3 A	L 0–4 AD 1–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 0–3 H
Arouca	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 HD 3–3 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H
Casa Pia	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Points	27 of 81 · 1.00 per game	29 of 81 · 1.07 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Santa Clara wins2 draws2 Rio Ave wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

30 Nov 2025Rio Ave1–1Santa Clara
18 Apr 2025Rio Ave1–1Santa Clara
7 Dec 2024Santa Clara1–0Rio Ave
17 Mar 2023Santa Clara0–2Rio Ave
2 Oct 2022Rio Ave1–0Santa Clara

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	0.93	1.04
Conceded per game	1.25	1.71
Match goals	2.18	2.75	2.33
Over 1.5	54%	82%
Over 2.5	36%	64%	41%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	54%	47%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	36%	39%
Games	28	28

	Santa Clara	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.70
Conceded per game	1.50	1.70
Match goals	2.70	2.40	2.33
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	41%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	4.42	4.19
Corners conceded	4.79	6.44
Match total	9.21	10.63	9.24
Over 8.5	63% 15/24	74% 20/27
Over 9.5	46% 11/24	63% 17/27
Over 10.5	33% 8/24	52% 14/27
Cards
Cards	2.93	2.57
Opponent cards	2.93	2.32
Match total	5.86	4.89	5.11
Over 3.5	82% 23/28	64% 18/28
Over 4.5	64% 18/28	54% 15/28

	Santa Clara	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.70
Corners conceded	4.80	5.20
Match total	9.20	9.90	9.24
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.40
Opponent cards	2.60	1.70
Match total	5.30	4.10	5.11
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 4.83

Red cards0.28league 0.25

Cards 5+46%league 58%

Fouls25.5league 26.9

Penalties0.25league 0.43

Home wins41%league 41%

Santa Clara5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.2 Pens for · against1 · 1

L27 Sep 25H · Tondela1–22
D23 Feb 25A · Estrela0–01
W1 Feb 25H · Casa Pia2–13
W31 Aug 24H · AVS2–11
L5 Jan 23H · SC Braga0–41

Rio Ave7 with this referee

Record1-3-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

L8 Feb 26A · SC Braga0–31
L1 Nov 25H · Estoril0–43
D16 Mar 24A · Farense1–11
D12 Nov 23A · GIL Vicente1–11
L14 May 23H · Guimaraes0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.