Sassuolo vs AC Milan – 3 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 35 Sun, May 3 · 14:00 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 11th · 46 pts · 34 played DWLWD

2–0Full time

AC Milan 3rd · 67 pts · 34 played WLLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were slight favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 7.1 days of rest, AC Milan 6.8 and had to travel 142 km.

Away travel142 kmRest days7.1 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Sassuolo29%

Draw30%

AC Milan41%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.24

Sassuolo25%

Draw26%

AC Milan49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.64

Sassuolo29%

Draw30%

AC Milan41%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.25

Sassuolo24%

Draw29%

AC Milan48%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.39

Sassuolo30%

Draw28%

AC Milan42%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.35

Over 2.5 39% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 75

Team strength

Sassuolo

AC Milan

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

41 AttackIn forecast 72

32 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

AC Milan

1.21 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.41

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.79

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

68% Scored inContext 82%

21% Clean sheetsContext 44%

10.44 ShotsContext 12.85

3.68 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.24

35% On target shareContext 33%

6.82 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

66% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.07 OffsidesContext 2.07

14.24 Shots allowedContext 10.88

4.91 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.69

3.56 BlocksContext 3.31

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

73% Save rateContext 83%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

382 PassesContext 485

315 Accurate passesContext 426

83% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.56 FoulsContext 9.62

12.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.21

2.26 Yellow cardsContext 1.47

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

80% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.50 ShotsContext 12.50

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

36% On target shareContext 27%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

72% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 6%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.25

14.90 Shots allowedContext 11.30

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.30 BlocksContext 3.20

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

81% Save rateContext 81%

44% PossessionIn forecast 54%

372 PassesContext 494

311 Accurate passesContext 435

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.80 FoulsContext 9.80

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km227 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AC Milan

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel142 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Apr	6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	142 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	227 km	282 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13S. Turati(G)

23U. Garcia 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

42K. Thorstvedt 18N. Matić 90I. Koné

45A. Laurienté 8M. Nzola 10D. Berardi

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 46M. Gabbia 23O. Tomori

2P. Estupiñán 12A. Rabiot 30A. Jashari 19Y. Fofana 56A. Saelemaekers

10Rafael Leão 18C. Nkunku

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AC Milan Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo+0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AC Milan-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 1.53points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 8-2-7
Scored: 1.24
Conceded: 1.35

AC Milan · Away 2.06points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 10-5-2
Scored: 1.53
Conceded: 0.65

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	AC Milan
Fiorentina	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Como	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A
Genoa	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Juventus	D 1–1 AL 0–3 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Bologna	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H
Lazio	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Atalanta	W 2–1 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
Verona	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Udinese	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H	L 0–3 HW 3–0 A
Inter	L 0–5 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Pisa	W 3–1 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Cremonese	W 1–0 HL 2–3 A	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H
Napoli	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Parma	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Torino	L 0–1 H	W 3–2 HW 3–2 A
Lecce	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Points	45 of 99 · 1.36 per game	66 of 99 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Sassuolo wins3 draws2 AC Milan wins

Goals per game1.86 – 1.71 Over 2.571% Both scored57% Clean sheets14% · 43%

14 Dec 2025AC Milan2–2Sassuolo
14 Apr 2024Sassuolo3–3AC Milan
30 Dec 2023AC Milan1–0Sassuolo
29 Jan 2023AC Milan2–5Sassuolo
30 Aug 2022Sassuolo0–0AC Milan
22 May 2022Sassuolo0–3AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.21	1.41
Conceded per game	1.29	0.79
Match goals	2.50	2.21	2.25
Over 1.5	74%	62%
Over 2.5	56%	41%	39%
Over 3.5	21%	18%
Both teams scored	53%	44%	46%
Clean sheets	21%	44%
Failed to score	32%	18%
Games	34	34

	Sassuolo	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.80
Conceded per game	1.00	0.90
Match goals	2.40	1.70	2.25
Over 1.5	80%	40%
Over 2.5	70%	20%	39%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	20%	46%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	3.76	4.39
Corners conceded	4.79	4.29
Match total	8.55	8.68	8.67
Over 8.5	56% 19/34	52% 16/31
Over 9.5	41% 14/34	35% 11/31
Over 10.5	26% 9/34	29% 9/31
Cards
Cards	2.41	1.59
Opponent cards	1.88	2.06
Match total	4.29	3.65	3.87
Over 3.5	62% 21/34	53% 18/34
Over 4.5	38% 13/34	29% 10/34

	Sassuolo	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	3.60
Corners conceded	5.50	3.80
Match total	10.10	7.40	8.67
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	4.40	3.60	3.87
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 75 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 3.70

Red cards0.16league 0.18

Cards 5+64%league 34%

Fouls24.8league 24.8

Penalties0.17league 0.29

Home wins36%league 39%

Sassuolo5 with this referee

Record0-1-4 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

L3 Mar 24A · Verona0–14
L4 Jan 23H · Sampdoria1–22
L25 Apr 22H · Juventus1–22
L6 Feb 22A · Sampdoria0–42
D5 Dec 21A · Spezia2–23

AC Milan6 with this referee

Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D17 Aug 24H · Torino2–23
W30 Mar 24A · Fiorentina2–13
W20 Jan 24A · Udinese3–21
W23 Sep 23H · Verona1–04
D21 Aug 22A · Atalanta1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.