Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sassuolo were slight favourites.
Sassuolo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 13.7 days of rest, Cagliari 14.8 and had to travel 621 km.
Away travel621 kmRest days13.7 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Sassuolo48%
Draw29%
Cagliari23%
Sassuolo48%
Draw26%
Cagliari26%
Sassuolo48%
Draw29%
Cagliari23%
Sassuolo41%
Draw30%
Cagliari29%
Sassuolo50%
Draw27%
Cagliari23%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 75
Team strength
Sassuolo
Cagliari
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
41
AttackIn forecast
31
32
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloCagliari
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.03
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
67%
Scored inContext
63%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.27
ShotsContext
9.83
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
36%
On target shareContext
33%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.18
68%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.16
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.97
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.50
BlocksContext
4.07
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.64
73%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
383
PassesContext
389
315
Accurate passesContext
318
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.40
FoulsContext
14.33
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.63
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
8.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
74%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.10
BlocksContext
4.80
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
368
PassesContext
401
305
Accurate passesContext
328
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.50
FoulsContext
13.50
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest13.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km471 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel621 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.7Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14.8Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 621 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 471 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
23U. Garcia
21J. Idzes
19F. Romagna
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
7C. Volpato
10D. Berardi
99A. Pinamonti
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
33A. Obert
14A. Deiola
10G. Gaetano
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
90M. Folorunsho
94S. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Cagliari-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-7
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.40
Cagliari · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Bologna | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Lazio | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Atalanta | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Verona | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Udinese | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Pisa | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Como | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 36 of 87 · 1.24 per game | 30 of 87 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Sassuolo wins1 draws3 Cagliari wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 30 Oct 2025Cagliari1–2Sassuolo
- 19 May 2024Sassuolo0–2Cagliari
- 11 Dec 2023Cagliari2–1Sassuolo
- 16 Apr 2022Cagliari1–0Sassuolo
- 21 Nov 2021Sassuolo2–2Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.43 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 47% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 37% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Sassuolo | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.20 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.43 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 12/30 | 21% 6/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 7/30 | 14% 4/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.34 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 70% 21/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 11/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Sassuolo | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.90 | 8.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.76
Red cards0.23league 0.19
Cards 5+36%league 35%
Fouls22.5league 25.1
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins41%league 40%
Sassuolo3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L8 Feb 26H · Inter0–52
- L28 Feb 24H · Napoli1–60
- D17 Oct 21A · Genoa2–24
Cagliari2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D22 Oct 23A · Salernitana2–24
- L9 Apr 22H · Juventus1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo29 games · scored 35 · conceded 38
7
9
0-15
3
6
16-30
4
3
31-45
7
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
Cagliari30 games · scored 31 · conceded 42
8
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
5
6
46-60
8
7
61-75
8
11
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
