Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 7.1 days of rest, Juventus 7 and had to travel 236 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel236 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sassuolo29%
Draw25%
Juventus47%
Sassuolo25%
Draw24%
Juventus51%
Sassuolo26%
Draw24%
Juventus49%
Sassuolo22%
Draw23%
Juventus55%
Sassuolo29%
Draw25%
Juventus46%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
24°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 54%
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 12
Team strength
Sassuolo
Juventus
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
41
AttackIn forecast
57
32
DefenceIn forecast
76
51
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloJuventus
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.32
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.60
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
19.00
ShotsContext
18.33
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
37%
On target shareContext
29%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
58%
Box shareContext
52%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.00
Shots allowedContext
6.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
5.00
BlocksContext
1.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
69%
Save rateContext
100%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
420
PassesContext
489
371
Accurate passesContext
423
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.33
FoulsContext
17.00
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.44
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.00
ShotsContext
16.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
35%
On target shareContext
30%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
63%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.00
Shots allowedContext
9.20
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
3.60
BlocksContext
2.88
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
68%
Save rateContext
83%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
434
PassesContext
484
378
Accurate passesContext
415
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.20
FoulsContext
13.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
LWD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km121 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 4 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 121 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
16F. Leysen
21J. Idzes
46S. Cinquegrano
35L. Lipani
18N. Matić
45A. Laurienté
42K. Thorstvedt
10D. Berardi
94S. Esposito
Juventus
Confirmed XI
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik
26J. Lucumí
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
8T. Koopmeiners
12Douglas Luiz
17Kerim Alajbegović
31N. González
7Francisco Conceição
9R. Kolo Muani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo+2.1 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Juventus-2.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Juventus · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Sassuolo wins1 draws4 Juventus wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.88
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 21 Mar 2026Juventus1–1Sassuolo
- 6 Jan 2026Sassuolo0–3Juventus
- 16 Jan 2024Juventus3–0Sassuolo
- 23 Sep 2023Sassuolo4–2Juventus
- 16 Apr 2023Sassuolo1–0Juventus
- 15 Aug 2022Juventus3–0Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 1.67 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Sassuolo | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.70 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 10% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 9.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 11.67 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 4.34 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Sassuolo | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.30 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.70 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.17
Red cards0.00league 0.03
Cards 5+25%league 19%
Fouls25.5league 22.7
Penalties0.25league 0.06
Home wins58%league 39%
Sassuolo1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Dec 25A · Bologna1–13
Juventus1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Mar 26H · Pisa4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Juventus3 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
