Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Sassuolo had 16 days of rest, Lazio 13.9 and had to travel 347 km.
Away travel347 kmRest days16 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Sassuolo20%
Draw25%
Lazio55%
Sassuolo19%
Draw24%
Lazio57%
Sassuolo19%
Draw25%
Lazio56%
Sassuolo15%
Draw22%
Lazio63%
Sassuolo20%
Draw24%
Lazio56%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyParide Tremolada
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 9
Team strength
Sassuolo
Lazio
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
41
AttackIn forecast
53
32
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloLazio
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
2.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.00
ShotsContext
12.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
50%
On target shareContext
28%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
55%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.00
BlocksContext
2.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
50%
Save rateContext
80%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
425
PassesContext
490
361
Accurate passesContext
440
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.52
Team ratingContext
7.01
16.50
FoulsContext
9.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.20
ShotsContext
15.90
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
35%
On target shareContext
34%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
61%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.88
13.10
Shots allowedContext
9.90
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.70
BlocksContext
2.11
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
56%
Save rateContext
73%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
346
PassesContext
489
264
Accurate passesContext
428
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.20
FoulsContext
10.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel347 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 13.9Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 347 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
40A. Vranckx
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
17Nuno Tavares
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
7O. Dele-Bashiru
6N. Rovella
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
11V. Castellanos
22M. Cancellieri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lazio-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lazio · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Sassuolo wins1 draws4 Lazio wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 26 May 2024Lazio1–1Sassuolo
- 21 Oct 2023Sassuolo0–2Lazio
- 3 May 2023Lazio2–0Sassuolo
- 15 Jan 2023Sassuolo0–2Lazio
- 2 Apr 2022Lazio2–1Sassuolo
- 12 Dec 2021Sassuolo2–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sassuolo | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 9.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Sassuolo | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 7.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.11 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 6.30 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paride Tremolada Italy · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 3.31
Red cards0.22league 0.08
Cards 5+56%league 31%
Fouls24.7league 25.6
Penalties0.56league 0.15
Home wins44%league 42%
Sassuolo1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 May 24A · Lazio1–11
Lazio3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D10 Jan 25H · Como1–14
- W18 Aug 24H · Venezia3–11
- D26 May 24H · Sassuolo1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Lazio2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
