Sassuolo vs Torino – 29 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 17:30 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 13th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–1Full time

Torino 12th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sassuolo were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 5.9 days of rest, Torino 5.9 and had to travel 236 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel236 kmRest days5.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sassuolo48%

Draw25%

Torino27%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.16

Sassuolo43%

Draw26%

Torino31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Sassuolo50%

Draw24%

Torino26%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.16

Sassuolo41%

Draw25%

Torino34%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.31

Sassuolo48%

Draw24%

Torino28%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.20

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

31°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 22%

Warm

Referee · ItalyDavide Di Marco

Cards per match 2.7
Penalties per match 0.71
Matches 7

Team strength

Sassuolo

Torino

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

41 AttackIn forecast 39

32 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Torino

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.40

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

32% On target shareContext 23%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

65% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.29 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.80 Shots allowedContext 14.40

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11

3.10 BlocksContext 4.60

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

72% Save rateContext 63%

49% PossessionIn forecast 44%

427 PassesContext 371

369 Accurate passesContext 304

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.20 FoulsContext 11.60

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo L

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km268 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 0 pts vs 0.9 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

L23 AugA · Atalanta1–20.7 xPts

Torino L

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel236 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 38 · 0 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L23 AugH · AC Milan1–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug	5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	236 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	268 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 16F. Leysen 21J. Idzes 46Simone Cinquegrano

50D. Bakola 18N. Matić 17V. Adžić

45A. Laurienté 9K. Bowie 7C. Volpato

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

5-3-2

26D. Mascardi(G)

77Alessio Cacciamani 5E. Cömert 23Saúl Coco 15P. Comuzzo 29N. Fortini

10N. Vlašić 28K. Fitz-Jim 66G. Gineitis

19C. Adams 18G. Simeone

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo-1.9 pp
Draw+0.6 pp
Torino+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home No home games yet this season.

Torino · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Sassuolo wins3 draws4 Torino wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.13 Over 2.525% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

8 May 2026Torino2–1Sassuolo
21 Dec 2025Sassuolo0–1Torino
10 Feb 2024Sassuolo1–1Torino
6 Nov 2023Torino2–1Sassuolo
3 Apr 2023Sassuolo1–1Torino
17 Sep 2022Torino0–1Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.79
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Sassuolo	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.30
Conceded per game	1.30	1.50
Match goals	2.50	2.80	2.79
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	2.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	8.00	6.00	8.45
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	1.00
Match total	0.00	1.00	3.36
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Sassuolo	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	3.67
Corners conceded	5.40	4.22
Match total	8.50	7.89	8.45
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.30
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	4.30	3.00	3.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Di Marco Italy · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.57league 3.36

Red cards0.14league 0.00

Cards 5+0%league 9%

Fouls21.6league 23.6

Penalties0.71league 0.00

Home wins43%league 36%

Sassuolo1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D24 Nov 25H · Pisa2–22

Torino

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.