Sassuolo vs Udinese – 28 Sep 2025

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 28 · 11:30 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 14th · 3 pts · 4 played LLWL

3–1Full time

Udinese 10th · 7 pts · 4 played DWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Udinese. Sassuolo had 6.7 days of rest, Udinese 7.7 and had to travel 254 km.

Away travel254 kmRest days6.7 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sassuolo36%

Draw29%

Udinese35%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.20

Sassuolo36%

Draw27%

Udinese37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35

Sassuolo35%

Draw29%

Udinese36%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.21

Sassuolo29%

Draw29%

Udinese42%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.35

Sassuolo37%

Draw27%

Udinese36%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.35

Over 2.5 43% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

No weather data yet

RefereeDaniele Perenzoni

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 4

Team strength

Sassuolo

Udinese

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

41 AttackIn forecast 22

32 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Udinese

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

75% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

8.75 ShotsContext 11.25

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

46% On target shareContext 36%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

61% Box shareContext 42%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.25 Shots allowedContext 11.75

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

4.50 BlocksContext 2.00

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

68% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

395 PassesContext 370

332 Accurate passesContext 309

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.83

14.00 FoulsContext 9.75

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.75

2.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.50 ShotsContext 11.80

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

35% On target shareContext 32%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

60% Box shareContext 54%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.86

13.60 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.00 BlocksContext 3.56

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

62% Save rateContext 68%

41% PossessionIn forecast 46%

351 PassesContext 361

275 Accurate passesContext 296

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.00 FoulsContext 13.50

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo

Rest6.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km283 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Udinese

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel254 km689 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.7Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep	7.7Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	254 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	283 km	689 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

90I. Koné 18N. Matić 40A. Vranckx

45A. Laurienté 99A. Pinamonti 10D. Berardi

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-5-2

90R. Sava(G)

28O. Solet 31T. Kristensen 16M. Palma

33J. Zemura 14A. Atta 8J. Karlström 24J. Piotrowski 59A. Zanoli

9K. Davis 10N. Zaniolo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo+0.8 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Udinese-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Udinese · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	Udinese
Inter	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Sassuolo wins4 draws2 Udinese wins

Goals per game1.50 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

1 Apr 2024Sassuolo1–1Udinese
17 Dec 2023Udinese2–2Sassuolo
12 Feb 2023Udinese2–2Sassuolo
11 Sep 2022Sassuolo1–3Udinese
7 May 2022Sassuolo1–1Udinese
7 Nov 2021Udinese3–2Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.75	1.25
Match goals	2.75	2.25	2.41
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	43%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

	Sassuolo	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.75	1.25
Match goals	2.75	2.25	2.41
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	43%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	2.75	4.33
Corners conceded	5.25	7.00
Match total	8.00	11.33	9.45
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	3.50	3.71
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4

	Sassuolo	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	4.13
Corners conceded	5.40	7.50
Match total	9.30	11.63	9.45
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.50
Opponent cards	1.70	1.40
Match total	4.10	3.90	3.71
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Perenzoni 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 3.53

Red cards0.25league 0.14

Cards 5+50%league 35%

Fouls27.0league 25.8

Penalties0.25league 0.21

Home wins100%league 37%

Sassuolo

No previous matches with this referee.

Udinese1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L4 Apr 25A · Genoa0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.