SC Braga vs AVS – 24 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 24 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 5th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

2–2Full time

AVS 15th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were clear favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 15). SC Braga usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. SC Braga had 7.1 days of rest, AVS 9.2 and had to travel.

Rest days7.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

SC Braga76%

Draw16%

AVS8%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.67

SC Braga76%

Draw16%

AVS8%

Expected goals 2.52 – 0.71

SC Braga76%

Draw16%

AVS8%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.67

SC Braga70%

Draw19%

AVS11%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.76

SC Braga76%

Draw16%

AVS8%

Expected goals 2.52 – 0.71

Over 2.5 61% Both score 45% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Goncalves

Team strength

SC Braga

AVS

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

42 AttackIn forecast 17

59 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

AVS

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

AVS

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+1.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.68

100% Scored inContext 50%

100% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.00 ShotsContext 12.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00

60% On target shareContext 17%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

56% Box shareContext 43%

30% ConversionContext 4%

— OffsidesContext 1.50

7.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.00 BlocksContext 2.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

80% Save rateContext 44%

68% PossessionIn forecast 49%

609 PassesContext 333

542 Accurate passesContext 260

89% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.15 Team ratingContext 6.60

8.00 FoulsContext 17.50

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.80

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.66 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

100% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.75 ShotsContext 10.00

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.40

37% On target shareContext 24%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

53% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 6%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.89

6.38 Shots allowedContext 13.60

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

2.00 BlocksContext 2.90

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

80% Save rateContext 56%

60% PossessionIn forecast 44%

529 PassesContext 317

453 Accurate passesContext 242

86% Pass accuracyContext 76%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.65

12.63 FoulsContext 15.80

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km599 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AVS

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	AVS
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug	9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	599 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

1L. Horníček(G)

5Leonardo Lelo 15Paulo Oliveira 14G. Lagerbielke 2Víctor Gómez

10R. Zalazar 8João Moutinho 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 7R. Fernandes

18Pau Víctor

9A. El Ouazzani

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

AVS Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

93Simão(G)

12Leonardo Rivas 42C. Devenish 33Aderllan Santos 5Guillem Molina

15Jaume Grau 27Ángel Algobia

11B. Akinsola 10Rafael Barbosa 2Diogo Spencer

20Diego Duarte

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

AVS Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AVS+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.00

AVS · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 SC Braga wins0 draws0 AVS wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

13 Apr 2025SC Braga4–1AVS
1 Dec 2024AVS0–1SC Braga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	AVS	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	0.50
Conceded per game	0.00	2.50
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.15
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	SC Braga	AVS	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	0.50
Conceded per game	0.00	2.50
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.15
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	AVS	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.00
Corners conceded	2.00	4.00
Match total	7.00	9.00	9.45
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	3.00
Match total	3.50	5.00	4.75
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	SC Braga	AVS	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	3.56
Corners conceded	2.80	4.56
Match total	8.40	8.12	9.45
Over 8.5	40% 2/5	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	3.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.20	5.20	4.75
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.