SC Braga vs Estrela – 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 4th · 58 pts · 33 played DWLDD

2–2Full time

Estrela 15th · 29 pts · 33 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. SC Braga had 4.9 days of rest, Estrela 4.9 and had to travel 319 km.

Away travel319 kmRest days4.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d3 · 1

SC Braga59%

Draw24%

Estrela17%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.87

SC Braga75%

Draw16%

Estrela9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

SC Braga59%

Draw24%

Estrela17%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.87

SC Braga52%

Draw26%

Estrela22%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.98

SC Braga59%

Draw23%

Estrela18%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.92

Over 2.5 50% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.2
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 68

Team strength

SC Braga

Estrela

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

42 AttackIn forecast 24

59 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Estrela

1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.09

1.03 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

91% Scored inContext 55%

36% Clean sheetsContext 24%

11.15 ShotsContext 10.67

4.55 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

41% On target shareContext 32%

7.55 Shots in the boxContext 5.82

64% Box shareContext 53%

17% ConversionContext 10%

1.95 OffsidesContext 2.23

9.18 Shots allowedContext 12.94

3.19 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.42

2.69 BlocksContext 4.00

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.03

70% Save rateContext 66%

63% PossessionIn forecast 47%

590 PassesContext 347

516 Accurate passesContext 279

88% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.30 FoulsContext 13.91

11.48 Fouls sufferedContext 14.73

2.12 Yellow cardsContext 2.55

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

100% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

7.90 ShotsContext 11.50

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

41% On target shareContext 32%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

60% Box shareContext 63%

20% ConversionContext 9%

2.14 OffsidesContext 3.00

11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.11 BlocksContext 4.67

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

66% Save rateContext 68%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

536 PassesContext 350

461 Accurate passesContext 279

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.81

11.30 FoulsContext 13.10

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,574 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel319 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	319 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,574 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 7	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	85.1	84.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1L. Horníček(G)

17Gabriel Moscardo 15Paulo Oliveira 14G. Lagerbielke

77Gabri Martínez 8João Moutinho 90Luisinho 2Víctor Gómez

21Ricardo Horta

39Fran Navarro 18Pau Víctor

Estrela Confirmed XI

3-4-3

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

83Otávio 4S. Leković 30Luan Patrick

24B. Langa 19Paulo Moreira 39G. Doue 17Jefferson Encada

10I. Stoica 20S. van Hooijdonk 99A. Marcus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 1.81points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-5-3
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Estrela · Away 0.69points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-9
Scored: 0.94
Conceded: 1.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	SC Braga	Estrela
Benfica	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H
Estoril	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A
Santa Clara	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
Casa Pia	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	W 4–0 HW 5–3 A
Famalicao	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 HW 3–2 A
Arouca	W 1–0 HW 4–0 A	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H
Moreirense	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H
FC Porto	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
Sporting CP	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Nacional	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Guimaraes	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A
Rio Ave	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
AVS	W 4–0 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Alverca	W 5–0 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Tondela	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Points	57 of 96 · 1.78 per game	28 of 96 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 SC Braga wins2 draws0 Estrela wins

Goals per game2.40 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

3 Jan 2026Estrela3–3SC Braga
19 Jan 2025Estrela0–1SC Braga
11 Aug 2024SC Braga1–1Estrela
2 Mar 2024SC Braga3–0Estrela
28 Sep 2023Estrela2–4SC Braga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	1.09
Conceded per game	1.03	1.64
Match goals	2.91	2.73	2.69
Over 1.5	76%	73%
Over 2.5	67%	52%	50%
Over 3.5	36%	36%
Both teams scored	55%	45%	49%
Clean sheets	36%	24%
Failed to score	9%	45%
Games	33	33

	SC Braga	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	1.30
Match goals	3.00	2.30	2.69
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.21	3.96
Corners conceded	3.38	5.36
Match total	8.59	9.32	9.38
Over 8.5	48% 14/29	50% 14/28
Over 9.5	31% 9/29	43% 12/28
Over 10.5	31% 9/29	39% 11/28
Cards
Cards	2.21	2.67
Opponent cards	2.55	2.73
Match total	4.76	5.40	5.06
Over 3.5	76% 25/33	79% 26/33
Over 4.5	58% 19/33	70% 23/33

	SC Braga	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	4.88
Corners conceded	3.80	5.88
Match total	7.60	10.76	9.38
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	3.10	2.40
Opponent cards	2.70	2.80
Match total	5.80	5.20	5.06
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 68 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.76league 4.79

Red cards0.41league 0.24

Cards 5+72%league 57%

Fouls28.7league 26.7

Penalties0.43league 0.43

Home wins37%league 41%

SC Braga4 with this referee

Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

W18 Jan 26A · Tondela1–03
W15 Mar 25A · Farense1–01
W26 Feb 24A · Boavista4–03
W28 Aug 22A · Arouca6–03

Estrela5 with this referee

Record0-1-4 Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds3

L20 Feb 26H · Tondela0–23
D21 Sep 25A · Tondela0–03
L17 May 25A · Estoril0–42
L29 Mar 25H · Sporting CP0–38
L19 Aug 23A · Benfica0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.