SC Braga
Attack−3%
Defense risk−4%
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for GIL Vicente. SC Braga had 10 days of rest, GIL Vicente 10.1 and had to travel 16 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel16 kmRest days10 · 10.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
SC Braga56%
Draw24%
GIL Vicente19%
SC Braga61%
Draw23%
GIL Vicente17%
SC Braga56%
Draw24%
GIL Vicente19%
SC Braga49%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente25%
SC Braga56%
Draw24%
GIL Vicente19%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
15°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 57%
RefereeFábio Veríssimo
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 64
Team strength
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
41
AttackIn forecast
32
59
DefenceIn forecast
50
42
Form indexContext
27
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack−19%
Defense risk+20%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
SC BragaGIL Vicente
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.44
86%
Scored inContext
71%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
12.29
ShotsContext
14.00
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
34%
On target shareContext
27%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
63%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.43
Shots allowedContext
10.14
2.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.29
2.50
BlocksContext
2.67
1.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.83
59%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
558
PassesContext
476
474
Accurate passesContext
413
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.29
FoulsContext
13.71
12.86
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.70
ShotsContext
13.30
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
33%
On target shareContext
26%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
58%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.56
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.38
BlocksContext
3.67
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
62%
Save rateContext
70%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
526
PassesContext
443
446
Accurate passesContext
382
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.70
FoulsContext
13.20
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
WLWDL
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
GIL Vicente
DLLDW
Rest10.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel16 km57 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 27 · 5 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Oct | 10.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 57 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
44A. Bajrami
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
50D. Rodrigues
29J. Gorby
8João Moutinho
7Diogo Travassos
10Pau Víctor
19J. Wind
21Ricardo Horta
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
45David Moreira
4M. Elimbi
39Jonathan Buatu
47Ricardo Esgaio
86Diogo Prioste
12A. Lausen
20Gil Martins
10Santi García
77Murilo
99M. Kaba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
No reported absences
GIL Vicente
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
GIL Vicente · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 SC Braga wins2 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.88
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 14 Feb 2026GIL Vicente2–1SC Braga
- 14 Sep 2025SC Braga0–1GIL Vicente
- 9 Feb 2025SC Braga2–0GIL Vicente
- 1 Sep 2024GIL Vicente0–0SC Braga
- 16 Mar 2024SC Braga2–1GIL Vicente
- 28 Oct 2023GIL Vicente3–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 1.57 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 14% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 29% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.80 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 7.50 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.28 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| SC Braga | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.33 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.70 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fábio Veríssimo 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.63league 4.27
Red cards0.27league 0.21
Cards 5+72%league 46%
Fouls27.8league 25.2
Penalties0.36league 0.35
Home wins33%league 39%
SC Braga9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Sep 26A · Santa Clara0–03
- L2 Mar 25A · Rio Ave1–25
- D1 Sep 24A · GIL Vicente0–01
- W11 May 24A · Guimaraes3–23
- W13 Apr 24A · Estoril1–01
GIL Vicente6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W19 Jan 25H · FC Porto3–13
- D1 Sep 24H · SC Braga0–04
- D4 May 24A · Boavista1–11
- D25 Feb 24H · FC Porto1–13
- L29 Apr 23H · Benfica0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga6 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
GIL Vicente7 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
3
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
