Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Sevilla had 6.1 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 7 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sevilla22%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid53%
Sevilla18%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid58%
Sevilla21%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid53%
Sevilla17%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid60%
Sevilla22%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid53%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 38
Team strength
Sevilla
Atletico Madrid
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
48
AttackIn forecast
82
57
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaAtletico Madrid
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
77%
Scored inContext
87%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.93
ShotsContext
13.10
3.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
33%
On target shareContext
41%
7.23
Shots in the boxContext
9.07
64%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.21
OffsidesContext
2.63
10.30
Shots allowedContext
10.77
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.62
3.38
BlocksContext
2.68
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
410
PassesContext
510
336
Accurate passesContext
437
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.50
FoulsContext
10.93
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.47
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.88
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.50
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
31%
On target shareContext
39%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
64%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
19%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.20
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.22
BlocksContext
2.90
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.78
57%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
394
PassesContext
484
316
Accurate passesContext
412
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.00
FoulsContext
10.30
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,330 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,330 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.9 | 10.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
36Oso
4Kike Salas
6N. Gudelj
32A. López Gallo
16Juanlu Sánchez
11R. Vargas
28Manu Bueno
18L. Agoumé
7Isaac Romero
9A. Adams
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
1J. Musso(G)
34Julio Díaz
30Dani Martínez
18Marc Pubill
32Javier Boñar
21O. Vargas
4Rodrigo Mendoza
11T. Almada
10Álex Baena
29Rayane Belaid
9A. Sørloth
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Atletico Madrid-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.07points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-7
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.47
Atletico Madrid · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–5 AW 4–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 31 of 87 · 1.07 per game | 54 of 87 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Sevilla wins1 draws6 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 1 Nov 2025Atletico Madrid3–0Sevilla
- 6 Apr 2025Sevilla1–2Atletico Madrid
- 8 Dec 2024Atletico Madrid4–3Sevilla
- 11 Feb 2024Sevilla1–0Atletico Madrid
- 23 Dec 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Sevilla
- 4 Mar 2023Atletico Madrid6–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 47% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 13% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.03 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.48 | 3.87 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 10.27 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 16/29 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 16/29 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 11/29 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.03 | |
| Match total | 4.97 | 4.30 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 17/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.10 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.10 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.74league 4.26
Red cards0.32league 0.28
Cards 5+61%league 47%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.26league 0.36
Home wins32%league 49%
Sevilla7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W14 Dec 25H · Oviedo4–01
- L25 Aug 25H · Getafe1–22
- L11 May 24A · Villarreal2–35
- L25 Feb 24A · Real Madrid0–13
- D3 Dec 23H · Villarreal1–13
Atletico MadridNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla30 games · scored 37 · conceded 50
4
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
12
31-45
7
10
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
12
76-90
Atletico Madrid30 games · scored 50 · conceded 30
11
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
6
5
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
6
61-75
12
8
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 25 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
