Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Sevilla had 7.2 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 6.2 and had to travel 390 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel390 kmRest days7.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sevilla35%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid40%
Sevilla27%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid48%
Sevilla35%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid40%
Sevilla28%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid47%
Sevilla35%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid39%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
Warm
29°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 34%
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 45
Team strength
Sevilla
Atletico Madrid
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
48
AttackIn forecast
82
57
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaAtletico Madrid
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+1.20
Goals minus xGContext
+1.15
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
17.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
29%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
42%
25%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
—
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
302
PassesContext
520
220
Accurate passesContext
457
73%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.12
17.00
FoulsContext
14.50
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
4.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.70
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
29%
On target shareContext
30%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
54%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.20
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.56
BlocksContext
3.60
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
66%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
345
PassesContext
475
270
Accurate passesContext
408
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.93
14.90
FoulsContext
10.80
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
WW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,406 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 6 pts vs 2.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug | 6.2La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,406 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
5A. López Gallo
2Juan Iglesias
18Jon Guridi
6L. Agoumé
3Julio Díaz
10Peque Fernández
30Miguel Sierra
9R. Ure
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
22Álex Grimaldo
17D. Hancko
18Marc Pubill
14Marcos Llorente
11A. Lookman
23M. Hjulmand
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
10Álex Baena
7K. Lee
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Atletico Madrid-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Atletico Madrid · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Sevilla wins1 draws6 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 11 Apr 2026Sevilla2–1Atletico Madrid
- 1 Nov 2025Atletico Madrid3–0Sevilla
- 6 Apr 2025Sevilla1–2Atletico Madrid
- 8 Dec 2024Atletico Madrid4–3Sevilla
- 11 Feb 2024Sevilla1–0Atletico Madrid
- 23 Dec 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.50 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 5.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 5.50 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.56 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 3.90 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 4.42
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+29%league 50%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.38league 0.38
Home wins51%league 50%
Sevilla4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 May 26H · Espanyol2–15
- D12 Sep 25H · Elche2–24
- L25 May 25A · Villarreal2–41
- L9 Dec 23A · Mallorca0–12
Atletico Madrid4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W27 Sep 25H · Real Madrid5–25
- W4 May 24A · Mallorca1–00
- D24 Feb 24A · Almeria2–21
- W24 Sep 23H · Real Madrid3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
