Sevilla
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sevilla34.3%fair odds 2.92
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.74
Atletico Madrid38.9%fair odds 2.57
Expected goals1.33 – 1.43total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sevilla ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sevilla goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.87
- 1–28.6%11.62
- 0–18.5%11.82
- 2–18.0%12.51
- 1–07.8%12.80
- 0–07.0%14.25
- 0–26.5%15.40
- 2–25.7%17.53
- 2–05.6%17.85
- 1–34.1%24.43
Winning margin
5.4%
Sevilla by 3+
fair 18.35
10.1%
Sevilla by 2
fair 9.92
18.8%
Sevilla by 1
fair 5.33
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.74
20.2%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.94
11.7%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 8.56
7.0%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 14.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Sevilla goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 34.3% | 34.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 38.9% | 38.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 52.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 57.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Sevilla | 1.33 | 1.35 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.43 | 1.43 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sevilla win34.3%2.92
- Draw26.8%3.74
- Atletico Madrid win38.9%2.57
- Double chance Sevilla or draw61.1%1.64
- Double chance Sevilla or Atletico Madrid73.2%1.37
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw65.7%1.52
- Draw no bet Sevilla46.8%2.13
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid53.2%1.88
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.7%1.30
- Over 2.551.9%1.93
- Over 3.529.8%3.36
- Over 4.514.5%6.90
- Under 1.523.3%4.29
- Under 2.548.1%2.08
- Under 3.570.2%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.30
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- Sevilla win and yes17.3%5.78
- Draw and yes19.8%5.06
- Atletico Madrid win and yes19.4%5.16
Team goals
- Sevilla over 0.573.4%1.36
- Sevilla over 1.538.2%2.62
- Sevilla over 2.514.9%6.72
- Atletico Madrid over 0.576.0%1.32
- Atletico Madrid over 1.541.7%2.40
- Atletico Madrid over 2.517.3%5.78
- Sevilla clean sheet24.0%4.17
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet26.6%3.76
- Sevilla win to nil17.0%5.89
- Atletico Madrid win to nil19.5%5.12
Handicap
- Sevilla −1.515.5%6.44
- Sevilla −2.55.4%18.35
- Atletico Madrid +1.584.5%1.18
- Atletico Madrid +2.594.6%1.06
- Atletico Madrid −1.518.7%5.35
- Sevilla +1.581.3%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored24
Favourite won45.8%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right58.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.6% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.9% | 25.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 55.0% | 80.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 74.9% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 6 of 24 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5069 | 0.5501 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.6% | 42.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 6 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 24 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.