Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Sevilla had 3.1 days of rest, Barcelona 3 and had to travel 828 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel828 kmRest days3.1 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 4
Sevilla13%
Draw16%
Barcelona71%
Sevilla14%
Draw20%
Barcelona66%
Sevilla13%
Draw16%
Barcelona71%
Sevilla9%
Draw13%
Barcelona78%
Sevilla12%
Draw16%
Barcelona72%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
Warm
30°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 36%
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 49
Team strength
Sevilla
Barcelona
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
48
AttackIn forecast
97
57
DefenceIn forecast
92
80
Form indexContext
95
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaBarcelona
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
4.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
4.18
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.67
ShotsContext
21.00
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.50
37%
On target shareContext
41%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
16.17
58%
Box shareContext
79%
13%
ConversionContext
22%
1.80
OffsidesContext
3.83
9.17
Shots allowedContext
7.33
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.75
BlocksContext
2.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
68%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
347
PassesContext
670
269
Accurate passesContext
606
78%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.49
15.17
FoulsContext
9.33
14.83
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
3.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
3.14
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
18.20
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.89
35%
On target shareContext
39%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
13.20
54%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
2.11
OffsidesContext
3.22
9.30
Shots allowedContext
8.30
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.38
BlocksContext
2.43
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
66%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
70%
362
PassesContext
688
288
Accurate passesContext
625
80%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.27
15.20
FoulsContext
8.90
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
WLDWW
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,035 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 80 · 10 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Barcelona
WWWWW
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel828 km1,210 km in 14d
Schedule load55%High
Form 95 · 15 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | High · 55 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Sep | 3La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 828 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,035 km | 1,210 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 23 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
5A. López Gallo
12A. Sangante
2Juan Iglesias
6L. Agoumé
8G. Kochorashvili
20Félix Correia
24Y. Fofana
30Miguel Sierra
9R. Ure
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
25D. Livaković(G)
2João Cancelo
15A. Christensen
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
8Pedri
16Rodri
7Fermín López
17A. Gordon
11Raphinha
10Lamine Yamal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Barcelona-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Barcelona · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 4.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | W 5–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 H | W 5–2 H |
| Points | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
1 Sevilla wins1 draws8 Barcelona wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.60
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 15 Mar 2026Barcelona5–2Sevilla
- 5 Oct 2025Sevilla4–1Barcelona
- 9 Feb 2025Sevilla1–4Barcelona
- 20 Oct 2024Barcelona5–1Sevilla
- 26 May 2024Sevilla1–2Barcelona
- 29 Sep 2023Barcelona1–0Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 4.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 5.67 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Sevilla | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 3.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.90 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.60 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 2.66 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Sevilla | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 9.67 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 2.60 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 4.25
Red cards0.18league 0.25
Cards 5+41%league 52%
Fouls26.1league 24.9
Penalties0.39league 0.37
Home wins51%league 44%
Sevilla4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W4 May 26H · Real Sociedad1–03
- L15 Mar 26A · Barcelona2–51
- W13 May 25H · Las Palmas1–06
- W17 Sep 23H · Las Palmas1–03
Barcelona4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W15 Mar 26H · Sevilla5–20
- W25 Jan 26H · Oviedo3–01
- W3 Feb 24A · Alaves3–12
- W22 Oct 23H · Athletic Club1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla6 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Barcelona6 games · scored 28 · conceded 6
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
8
2
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 37 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
7
4
61-75
10
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
