Sevilla
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sevilla12.5%fair odds 7.99
Draw17.3%fair odds 5.79
Barcelona70.2%fair odds 1.42
Expected goals1.01 – 2.55total 3.56
Likeliest score1–29.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sevilla ↓ · Barcelona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sevilla goals, columns Barcelona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.3%10.70
- 0–29.2%10.81
- 1–37.9%12.60
- 0–37.9%12.74
- 1–17.7%12.94
- 0–16.9%14.55
- 1–45.1%19.79
- 0–45.0%20.00
- 2–24.7%21.18
- 2–34.0%24.94
Winning margin
1.1%
Sevilla by 3+
fair 87.11
3.2%
Sevilla by 2
fair 31.42
8.2%
Sevilla by 1
fair 12.23
17.3%
Draw
fair 5.79
21.2%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.72
20.2%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.94
28.8%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 3.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
Sevilla goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
Barcelona goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
25%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 12.5% | 11.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 17.3% | 17.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Barcelona win | 70.2% | 71.4% | -1.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.0% | 67.1% | +1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 56.3% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Sevilla | 1.01 | 0.94 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.55 | 2.52 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sevilla win12.5%7.99
- Draw17.3%5.79
- Barcelona win70.2%1.42
- Double chance Sevilla or draw29.8%3.36
- Double chance Sevilla or Barcelona82.7%1.21
- Double chance Barcelona or draw87.5%1.14
- Draw no bet Sevilla15.1%6.61
- Draw no bet Barcelona84.9%1.18
Goals
- Over 0.596.8%1.03
- Over 1.587.4%1.14
- Over 2.569.0%1.45
- Over 3.547.6%2.10
- Over 4.528.5%3.50
- Under 1.512.6%7.94
- Under 2.531.0%3.22
- Under 3.552.4%1.91
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.69
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.551.3%1.95
- Sevilla win and yes7.9%12.63
- Draw and yes14.0%7.12
- Barcelona win and yes37.1%2.70
Team goals
- Sevilla over 0.563.6%1.57
- Sevilla over 1.526.8%3.73
- Sevilla over 2.58.2%12.16
- Barcelona over 0.592.2%1.08
- Barcelona over 1.572.2%1.38
- Barcelona over 2.546.8%2.14
- Sevilla clean sheet7.8%12.77
- Barcelona clean sheet36.4%2.75
- Sevilla win to nil4.6%21.78
- Barcelona win to nil33.2%3.02
Handicap
- Sevilla −1.54.3%23.09
- Sevilla −2.51.1%87.11
- Barcelona +1.595.7%1.05
- Barcelona +2.598.9%1.01
- Barcelona −1.549.0%2.04
- Sevilla +1.551.0%1.96
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored63
Favourite won46.0%
Avg chance given to result41.4%
1X2 Brier0.581
Over 2.5 called right60.3%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 38.9% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 44.9% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 55.1% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.6% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 43 of 63 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5981 | 0.5910 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.2% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 44.2% | 51.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 43 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Elche 2–3 Real Madrid12·16·72
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 63 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.