Sevilla vs Girona – 8 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 8 · 15:15 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 15th · 24 pts · 22 played LLDWL

1–1Full time

Girona 13th · 25 pts · 22 played WWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sevilla were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sevilla. Sevilla had 5.8 days of rest, Girona 8.1 and had to travel 909 km.

Away travel909 kmRest days5.8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Sevilla44%

Draw27%

Girona28%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.13

Sevilla43%

Draw27%

Girona30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Sevilla44%

Draw28%

Girona29%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.12

Sevilla37%

Draw28%

Girona35%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.27

Sevilla45%

Draw27%

Girona29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.18

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 45

Team strength

Sevilla

Girona

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

48 AttackIn forecast 49

57 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sevilla

Girona

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.95

1.68 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

77% Scored inContext 68%

18% Clean sheetsContext 18%

11.50 ShotsContext 9.23

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.45

35% On target shareContext 37%

7.73 Shots in the boxContext 5.91

65% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 10%

3.35 OffsidesContext 2.53

10.55 Shots allowedContext 14.73

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

3.47 BlocksContext 3.45

3.35 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.24

69% Save rateContext 69%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

423 PassesContext 444

348 Accurate passesContext 379

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.76

14.50 FoulsContext 11.18

13.23 Fouls sufferedContext 14.45

2.82 Yellow cardsContext 2.23

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.00 ShotsContext 9.70

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

39% On target shareContext 34%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

66% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.56

9.90 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

2.50 BlocksContext 3.40

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

63% Save rateContext 71%

58% PossessionIn forecast 52%

435 PassesContext 483

359 Accurate passesContext 417

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.82

13.20 FoulsContext 12.20

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,577 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel909 km1,450 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Feb	8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	909 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,577 km	1,450 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

12G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 6N. Gudelj 3César Azpilicueta 2J. Carmona Navarro

19B. Mendy 14Peque Fernández 18L. Agoumé

9A. Adams 17N. Maupay

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

4Arnau Martínez 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

23Iván Martín 8Fran Beltrán

21Bryan Gil 11T. Lemar 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+0.8 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Girona-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.18points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-6
Scored: 1.45
Conceded: 1.55

Girona · Away 1.09points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Girona
Mallorca	L 1–4 AL 1–3 H	W 2–1 A
Athletic Club	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	D 1–1 A
Elche	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–3 A
Celta Vigo	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Levante	L 0–3 H	L 0–4 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Oviedo	W 4–0 H	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H
Valencia	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Real Betis	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Espanyol	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Real Sociedad	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 A
Barcelona	W 4–1 H	L 1–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 A	L 1–3 H
Villarreal	L 1–2 H	L 0–5 A
Alaves	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Getafe	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Points	21 of 63 · 1.00 per game	25 of 63 · 1.19 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Sevilla wins0 draws5 Girona wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets14% · 29%

30 Aug 2025Girona0–2Sevilla
18 Jan 2025Girona1–2Sevilla
1 Sep 2024Sevilla0–2Girona
21 Jan 2024Girona5–1Sevilla
26 Aug 2023Sevilla1–2Girona
1 May 2023Sevilla0–2Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	0.95
Conceded per game	1.68	1.64
Match goals	3.00	2.59	2.60
Over 1.5	86%	82%
Over 2.5	68%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	32%	18%
Both teams scored	59%	55%	53%
Clean sheets	18%	18%
Failed to score	23%	32%
Games	22	22

	Sevilla	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.00
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	2.90	2.20	2.60
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.27	4.10
Corners conceded	4.73	4.65
Match total	10.00	8.75	9.58
Over 8.5	64% 14/22	45% 9/20
Over 9.5	64% 14/22	30% 6/20
Over 10.5	41% 9/22	30% 6/20
Cards
Cards	2.91	2.45
Opponent cards	2.18	1.68
Match total	5.09	4.13	4.42
Over 3.5	68% 15/22	32% 7/22
Over 4.5	59% 13/22	32% 7/22

	Sevilla	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	3.00
Corners conceded	3.70	3.44
Match total	9.80	6.44	9.58
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	11% 1/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.90
Opponent cards	2.50	2.20
Match total	5.10	5.10	4.42
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.33league 4.16

Red cards0.27league 0.27

Cards 5+49%league 45%

Fouls24.5league 24.6

Penalties0.40league 0.37

Home wins38%league 48%

Sevilla3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W28 Sep 25A · Rayo Vallecano1–02
D12 Nov 23H · Real Betis1–11
L26 Aug 23H · Girona1–22

Girona5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

L18 Oct 25A · Barcelona1–22
L25 May 25H · Atletico Madrid0–40
W31 Mar 24H · Real Betis3–23
D3 Feb 24H · Real Sociedad0–02
W26 Aug 23A · Sevilla2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.