Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sevilla were slight favourites.
Sevilla were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 39). Sevilla had 14.7 days of rest, Levante 14.9 and had to travel 540 km.
Away travel540 kmRest days14.7 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sevilla49%
Draw27%
Levante24%
Sevilla49%
Draw26%
Levante25%
Sevilla49%
Draw27%
Levante24%
Sevilla42%
Draw28%
Levante30%
Sevilla49%
Draw26%
Levante25%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
Sevilla
Levante
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
48
AttackIn forecast
55
57
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaLevante
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
82%
Scored inContext
69%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.65
ShotsContext
9.75
3.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
33%
On target shareContext
35%
7.41
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
66%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
3.67
OffsidesContext
2.46
10.71
Shots allowedContext
16.75
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.38
3.69
BlocksContext
4.63
3.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
72%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
419
PassesContext
344
343
Accurate passesContext
270
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.94
FoulsContext
12.81
13.47
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
3.06
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
10.00
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
67%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
3.71
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.00
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
4.10
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
65%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
414
PassesContext
355
338
Accurate passesContext
274
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.50
FoulsContext
11.60
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levante
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel540 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 14.9La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 540 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
4Kike Salas
6N. Gudelj
2J. Carmona Navarro
36Oso
20M. Sow
19B. Mendy
18L. Agoumé
16Juanlu Sánchez
14Peque Fernández
10A. Sánchez
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
6Diego Pampín
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
10Pablo Martínez
16K. Arriaga
18Iker Losada
24Carlos Álvarez
26Kareem Tunde
9Iván Romero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Levante+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Levante · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| Oviedo | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 4–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Girona | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Getafe | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 20 of 45 · 1.33 per game | 10 of 45 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Sevilla wins0 draws0 Levante wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 21 Apr 2022Levante2–3Sevilla
- 24 Oct 2021Sevilla5–3Levante
- 21 Apr 2021Levante0–1Sevilla
- 1 Oct 2020Sevilla1–0Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.88 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 31% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Sevilla | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.30 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.93 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.57 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 11/17 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 11/17 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.18 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.12 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.57 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 11/17 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Sevilla | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.11 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.90 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 4.11
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+44%league 45%
Fouls26.9league 24.5
Penalties0.11league 0.33
Home wins33%league 47%
Sevilla1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.7.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W20 Sep 25A · Alaves2–17
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L29 Aug 25A · Elche0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla17 games · scored 24 · conceded 26
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
8
76-90
Levante16 games · scored 17 · conceded 29
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
