Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sevilla were slight favourites.
Sevilla were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 45). Sevilla had 12.9 days of rest, Mallorca 13.8 and had to travel 789 km.
Away travel789 kmRest days12.9 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sevilla48%
Draw27%
Mallorca25%
Sevilla49%
Draw26%
Mallorca25%
Sevilla48%
Draw27%
Mallorca25%
Sevilla41%
Draw28%
Mallorca31%
Sevilla49%
Draw26%
Mallorca25%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 27
Team strength
Sevilla
Mallorca
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
48
AttackIn forecast
50
57
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaMallorca
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.90
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
100%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.00
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
68%
Box shareContext
61%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
4.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.25
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.57
BlocksContext
3.50
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
85%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
405
PassesContext
367
332
Accurate passesContext
294
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.77
15.88
FoulsContext
12.25
13.63
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
3.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
9.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
32%
On target shareContext
35%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
67%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
4.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.60
Shots allowedContext
15.30
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.44
BlocksContext
3.90
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
76%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
407
PassesContext
390
338
Accurate passesContext
314
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.80
FoulsContext
12.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel789 km1,240 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 789 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,240 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
23Marcão
3César Azpilicueta
2J. Carmona Navarro
19B. Mendy
18L. Agoumé
11R. Vargas
20M. Sow
16Juanlu Sánchez
7Isaac Romero
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
2Mateu Morey
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
12Samú Costa
17J. Virgili
10Darder
19Javi Llabrés
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Mallorca-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Mallorca · Away
0.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | W 4–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Sevilla wins4 draws1 Mallorca wins
Goals per game0.88 – 0.50
Over 2.513%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 38%
- 24 Feb 2025Sevilla1–1Mallorca
- 27 Aug 2024Mallorca0–0Sevilla
- 22 Apr 2024Sevilla2–1Mallorca
- 9 Dec 2023Mallorca1–0Sevilla
- 11 Feb 2023Sevilla2–0Mallorca
- 15 Oct 2022Mallorca0–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Sevilla | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.76 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.13 | 2.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 5.38 | 5.01 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Sevilla | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.80 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 4.09
Red cards0.22league 0.28
Cards 5+41%league 46%
Fouls26.0league 24.5
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins37%league 48%
SevillaNo previous matches with this referee.
Mallorca4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W26 May 24A · Getafe2–12
- D24 Feb 24A · Alaves1–12
- D13 Jan 24H · Celta Vigo1–14
- D12 Aug 23A · Las Palmas1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla8 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Mallorca8 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
