SK Beveren
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SK Beveren were slight favourites.
SK Beveren were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OH Leuven. SK Beveren had 8.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 2.9 and had to travel 49 km.
Away travel49 kmRest days8.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
SK Beveren48%
Draw24%
OH Leuven28%
SK Beveren51%
Draw24%
OH Leuven24%
SK Beveren48%
Draw24%
OH Leuven28%
SK Beveren41%
Draw25%
OH Leuven34%
SK Beveren48%
Draw24%
OH Leuven28%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Beveren)
No weather data yet
RefereeWim Smet
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 16
Team strength
SK Beveren
OH Leuven
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
18
AttackIn forecast
17
20
DefenceIn forecast
30
26
Form indexContext
11
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SK BeverenOH Leuven
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
3.04
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.51
50%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.75
ShotsContext
14.25
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
26%
On target shareContext
14%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
68%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
4%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.75
Shots allowedContext
18.00
6.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
4.25
BlocksContext
7.33
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
70%
Save rateContext
59%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
488
PassesContext
454
403
Accurate passesContext
372
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
8.25
FoulsContext
10.00
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
8.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
50%
Scored inContext
60%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.75
ShotsContext
11.70
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
26%
On target shareContext
23%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
68%
Box shareContext
67%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.13
15.75
Shots allowedContext
14.90
6.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.25
BlocksContext
4.00
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
70%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
488
PassesContext
395
403
Accurate passesContext
323
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.73
8.25
FoulsContext
10.50
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SK Beveren
LWLL
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km182 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 26 · 3 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
OH Leuven
LLLL
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel49 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 11 · 0 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SK Beveren |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 2.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 3 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 49 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 182 km | 143 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SK Beveren
Confirmed XI
1J. Schenk(G)
4C. Janssens
31B. Godeau
35Y. Gomis
21L. Jans
44C. Conde
18S. Dewaele
17J. Margaritha
22C. Brüls
5C. Lokesa
92L. Mertens
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. van den Heuvel(G)
28E. Pletinckx
3Noë Dussenne
5J. Lawrence
26T. Ogiwara
4B. Verstraete
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
8S. Schrijvers
19C. Ikwuemesi
20S. Yamada
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SK Beveren
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SK Beveren+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SK Beveren · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
OH Leuven · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SK Beveren | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| SK Beveren | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SK Beveren | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 8.75 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 12.00 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| SK Beveren | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 10.80 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 2.40 | 2.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wim Smet 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.19league 2.77
Red cards0.13league 0.14
Cards 5+31%league 20%
Fouls21.6league 21.9
Penalties0.13league 0.27
Home wins50%league 45%
SK BeverenNo previous matches with this referee.
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Apr 26A · Genk0–03
- L12 Nov 23A · Genk1–34
- L7 Oct 23A · Cercle Brugge2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SK Beveren4 games · scored 2 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
OH Leuven4 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
SK Beveren4 games · scored 2 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
8
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
