Slavia Praha vs Lens – 10 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 10 · 20:00 Fortuna Arena, Praha

Slavia Praha

2–3Full time

Lens

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were slight favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Slavia Praha had ? days of rest, Lens 5.2 and had to travel 824 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel824 kmRest days? · 5.2Matches / 14d0 · 2

Slavia Praha34%

Draw23%

Lens43%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.79

Slavia Praha37%

Draw26%

Lens37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Slavia Praha35%

Draw23%

Lens42%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.69

Slavia Praha27%

Draw22%

Lens52%

Expected goals 1.41 – 2.01

Slavia Praha34%

Draw23%

Lens43%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.77

Over 2.5 65% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Praha)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 57%

RefereeVassilis Fotias

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 50

Team strength

Slavia Praha

Lens

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

41 AttackIn forecast 63

40 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext 32

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Slavia Praha

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Slavia Praha

Lens

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 2.21

2.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

40% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.30 ShotsContext 18.50

4.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

29% On target shareContext 35%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 12.40

62% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 10%

3.63 OffsidesContext 2.22

15.90 Shots allowedContext 10.60

7.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.20 BlocksContext 3.44

5.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

69% Save rateContext 67%

48% PossessionIn forecast 55%

339 PassesContext 470

258 Accurate passesContext 400

76% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.90

15.90 FoulsContext 11.20

11.89 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Slavia Praha

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lens WLL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel824 km820 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 32 · 3 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected

L5 SepH · Lorient0–12.3 xPts
L29 AugA · Strasbourg1–21.7 xPts
W22 AugH · Auxerre5–22.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Slavia Praha	Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	5.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	824 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	820 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	32.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Slavia Praha Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

35J. Markovič(G)

2Š. Chaloupek 4D. Zima 27T. Vlček

8O. Kubiak 23M. Sadílek 30W. Nowak 14S. Isife

10D. Šturm 20E. Ayaosi

13M. Chytil

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

31Souleymane Sagnan 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio

14M. Udol 21A. Haidara 5A. Bulatović 22M. Skóraś

19A. Sima 10F. Thauvin

29F. Ivanović

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Slavia Praha Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lens Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Slavia Praha-0.3 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Lens+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Slavia Praha · Home No home games yet this season.

Lens · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Slavia Praha	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.37
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	65%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	66%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Slavia Praha	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	—	1.80
Conceded per game	—	1.60
Match goals	—	3.40	3.37
Over 1.5	—	80%
Over 2.5	—	60%	65%
Over 3.5	—	40%
Both teams scored	—	50%	66%
Clean sheets	—	20%
Failed to score	—	30%
Games	0	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Slavia Praha	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.86
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.07
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Slavia Praha	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.13
Corners conceded	5.56	5.75
Match total	9.56	12.88	8.86
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.50	1.80
Match total	5.00	4.00	4.07
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Vassilis Fotias 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.46league 4.00

Red cards0.22league 0.07

Cards 5+48%league 36%

Fouls25.9league 24.4

Penalties0.40league 0.21

Home wins44%league 57%

Slavia Praha

No previous matches with this referee.

Lens

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.